相关论文: Prediction Intervals in the Beta Autoregressive Mo…

Bootstrap smoothed (bagged) estimators have been proposed as an improvement on estimators found after preliminary data-based model selection. Efron, 2014, derived a widely applicable formula for a delta method approximation to the standard…

We consider the problem of finding confidence intervals for the risk of forecasting the future of a stationary, ergodic stochastic process, using a model estimated from the past of the process. We show that a bootstrap procedure provides…

We study the well known difficult problem of prediction in measurement error models. By targeting directly at the prediction interval instead of the point prediction, we construct a prediction interval by providing estimators of both the…

We construct long-term prediction intervals for time-aggregated future values of univariate economic time series. We propose computational adjustments of the existing methods to improve coverage probability under a small sample constraint.…

Prediction intervals are commonly used in meta-analysis with random-effects models. One widely used method, the Higgins-Thompson-Spiegelhalter prediction interval, replaces the heterogeneity parameter with its point estimate, but its…

We investigate the performance of model based bootstrap methods for constructing point-wise confidence intervals around the survival function with interval censored data. We show that bootstrapping from the nonparametric maximum likelihood…

The non-linear autoregressive (NLAR) model plays an important role in modeling and predicting time series. One-step ahead prediction is straightforward using the NLAR model, but the multi-step ahead prediction is cumbersome. For instance,…

Accurate forecasting is one of the fundamental focus in the literature of econometric time-series. Often practitioners and policy makers want to predict outcomes of an entire time horizon in the future instead of just a single $k$-step…

In the recent paper [5], a Bayesian approach for constructing confidence intervals in monotone regression problems is proposed, based on credible intervals. We view this method from a frequentist point of view, and show that it corresponds…

For discrete-valued time series, predictive inference cannot be implemented through the construction of prediction intervals to some predetermined coverage level, as this is the case for real-valued time series. To address this problem, we…

Beta regression models provide an adequate approach for modeling continuous outcomes limited to the interval (0,1). This paper deals with an extension of beta regression models that allow for explanatory variables to be measured with error.…

The aim of this paper is to propose a suitable method for constructing prediction intervals for the output of neural network models. To do this, we adapt the extremely randomized trees method originally developed for random forests to…

Reliable uncertainty quantification remains a central challenge in predictive modeling. While Bayesian methods are theoretically appealing, their predictive intervals can exhibit poor frequentist calibration, particularly with small sample…

Understanding model performance on unlabeled data is a fundamental challenge of developing, deploying, and maintaining AI systems. Model performance is typically evaluated using test sets or periodic manual quality assessments, both of…

We deal with Bayesian inference for Beta autoregressive processes. We restrict our attention to the class of conditionally linear processes. These processes are particularly suitable for forecasting purposes, but are difficult to estimate…

Machine learning models are increasingly used to produce predictions that serve as input data in subsequent statistical analyses. For example, computer vision predictions of economic and environmental indicators based on satellite imagery…

In assessing prediction accuracy of multivariable prediction models, optimism corrections are essential for preventing biased results. However, in most published papers of clinical prediction models, the point estimates of the prediction…

Motivated by the application to German interest rates, we propose a timevarying autoregressive model for short and long term prediction of time series that exhibit a temporary non-stationary behavior but are assumed to mean revert in the…

This paper develops valid bootstrap inference methods for the dynamic short panel threshold regression. We show that the standard nonparametric bootstrap is inconsistent for the first-differenced generalized method of moments (GMM)…

Prediction intervals in supervised Machine Learning bound the region where the true outputs of new samples may fall. They are necessary in the task of separating reliable predictions of a trained model from near random guesses, minimizing…