相关论文: Prediction Intervals in the Beta Autoregressive Mo…
Regression problems with bounded continuous outcomes frequently arise in real-world statistical and machine learning applications, such as the analysis of rates and proportions. A central challenge in this setting is predicting a response…
The age of big data has produced data sets that are computationally expensive to analyze and store. Algorithmic leveraging proposes that we sample observations from the original data set to generate a representative data set and then…
Conformal prediction has emerged as a popular technique for facilitating valid predictive inference across a spectrum of machine learning models, under minimal assumption of exchangeability. Recently, Hoff (2023) showed that full conformal…
We address the issue of model selection in beta regressions with varying dispersion. The model consists of two submodels, namely: for the mean and for the dispersion. Our focus is on the selection of the covariates for each submodel. Our…
Projections of future climate change rely heavily on climate models, and combining climate models through a multi-model ensemble is both more accurate than a single climate model and valuable for uncertainty quantification. However,…
Accurate predictions of electricity demands are necessary for managing operations in a small aggregation load setting like a Microgrid. Due to low aggregation, the electricity demands can be highly stochastic and point estimates would lead…
We propose a predictive runtime monitoring framework that forecasts the distribution of future positions of mobile robots in order to detect and avoid impending property violations such as collisions with obstacles or other agents. Our…
This paper suggests parametrically transformed nested error regression models (TNERM), which transform the data flexibly to follow the normal linear mixed regression. We provide a procedure for estimating consistently the parameters of the…
In this paper we introduce the concept of bootstrapped pivots for the sample and the population means. This is in contrast to the classical method of constructing bootstrapped confidence intervals for the population mean via estimating the…
The multivariate Fay-Herriot model is quite effective in combining information through correlations among small area survey estimates of related variables or historical survey estimates of the same variable or both. Though the literature on…
To use control charts in practice, the in-control state usually has to be estimated. This estimation has a detrimental effect on the performance of control charts, which is often measured for example by the false alarm probability or the…
Autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models are widely used for analyzing time series data. However, standard likelihood-based inference methodology for ARMA models has avoidable limitations. We show that currently accepted standards for…
Nested-error regression models are widely used for analyzing clustered data. For example, they are often applied to two-stage sample surveys, and in biology and econometrics. Prediction is usually the main goal of such analyses, and…
Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a statistical method for post-processing forecast ensembles of atmospheric variables, obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models, in order to create calibrated predictive probability…
This research paper introduces innovative approaches for multivariate time series forecasting based on different variations of the combined regression strategy. We use specific data preprocessing techniques which makes a radical change in…
We consider the performance of the bootstrap in high-dimensions for the setting of linear regression, where $p<n$ but $p/n$ is not close to zero. We consider ordinary least-squares as well as robust regression methods and adopt a minimalist…
The literature on multivariate time series is, largely, limited to either models based on the multivariate Gaussian distribution or models specifically developed for a given application. In this paper we develop a general approach which is…
We discuss Bayesian model uncertainty analysis and forecasting in sequential dynamic modeling of multivariate time series. The perspective is that of a decision-maker with a specific forecasting objective that guides thinking about relevant…
This paper investigates different vector step-size adaptation approaches for non-stationary online, continual prediction problems. Vanilla stochastic gradient descent can be considerably improved by scaling the update with a vector of…
Before delegating a task to an autonomous system, a human operator may want a guarantee about the behavior of the system. This paper extends previous work on conformal prediction for functional data and conformalized quantile regression to…