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We consider the problem of partial identification, the estimation of bounds on the treatment effects from observational data. Although studied using discrete treatment variables or in specific causal graphs (e.g., instrumental variables),…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-10-18 Vahid Balazadeh , Vasilis Syrgkanis , Rahul G. Krishnan

We propose Deep Longitudinal Targeted Minimum Loss-based Estimation (Deep LTMLE), a novel approach to estimate the counterfactual mean of outcome under dynamic treatment policies in longitudinal problem settings. Our approach utilizes a…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-06-09 Toru Shirakawa , Yi Li , Yulun Wu , Sky Qiu , Yuxuan Li , Mingduo Zhao , Hiroyasu Iso , Mark van der Laan

Temporal difference (TD) learning is a widely used method to evaluate policies in reinforcement learning. While many TD learning methods have been developed in recent years, little attention has been paid to preserving privacy and most of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-01-26 Canzhe Zhao , Yanjie Ze , Jing Dong , Baoxiang Wang , Shuai Li

We consider estimating the conditional average treatment effect for everyone by eliminating confounding and selection bias. Unfortunately, randomized clinical trials (RCTs) eliminate confounding but impose strict exclusion criteria that…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-06-15 Eric V. Strobl , Thomas A. Lasko

The presence of unobserved confounders is one of the main challenges in identifying treatment effects. In this paper, we propose a new approach to causal inference using panel data with large large $N$ and $T$. Our approach imputes the…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-03-28 Ben Deaner , Chen-Wei Hsiang , Andrei Zeleneev

Estimation of individual treatment effect in observational data is complicated due to the challenges of confounding and selection bias. A useful inferential framework to address this is the counterfactual (potential outcomes) model which…

机器学习 · 统计学 2017-01-23 Min Lu , Saad Sadiq , Daniel J. Feaster , Hemant Ishwaran

Differences-in-differences (DiD) is a causal inference method for observational longitudinal data that assumes parallel expected potential outcome trajectories between treatment groups under the counterfactual scenario where all units…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-12 Michael Jetsupphasuk , Didong Li , Michael G. Hudgens

In nonseparable triangular models with a binary endogenous treatment and a binary instrumental variable, Vuong and Xu (2017) established identification results for individual treatment effects (ITEs) under the rank invariance assumption.…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-03-10 Jun Ma , Vadim Marmer , Zhengfei Yu

Estimating counterfactual outcomes over time from observational data is relevant for many applications (e.g., personalized medicine). Yet, state-of-the-art methods build upon simple long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, thus rendering…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-06-06 Valentyn Melnychuk , Dennis Frauen , Stefan Feuerriegel

Often the analysis of time-dependent chemical and biophysical systems produces high-dimensional time-series data for which it can be difficult to interpret which individual features are most salient. While recent work from our group and…

The ability to answer causal questions is crucial in many domains, as causal inference allows one to understand the impact of interventions. In many applications, only a single intervention is possible at a given time. However, in some…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-10-12 Olivier Jeunen , Ciarán M. Gilligan-Lee , Rishabh Mehrotra , Mounia Lalmas

Instrumental variables (IVs) are crucial for addressing unobservable confounders, yet their stringent exogeneity assumptions pose significant challenges in networked data. Existing methods typically rely on modelling neighbour information…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2026-02-10 Zhirong Huang , Debo Cheng , Guixian Zhang , Yi Wang , Jiuyong Li , Shichao Zhang

Causal inference in continuous-time sequential decision problems is challenged by hidden confounders. We show that, in latent state-space models with time-varying interventions, observability of the latent dynamics from observed data is…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-14 Jennifer Wendland , Nicolas Freitag , Maik Kschischo

Estimating individual level treatment effects (ITE) from observational data is a challenging and important area in causal machine learning and is commonly considered in diverse mission-critical applications. In this paper, we propose an…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-06-10 Sungyub Kim , Yongsu Baek , Sung Ju Hwang , Eunho Yang

A new meta-algorithm for estimating the conditional average treatment effects is proposed in the paper. The main idea underlying the algorithm is to consider a new dataset consisting of feature vectors produced by means of concatenation of…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-09-10 Lev V. Utkin , Mikhail V. Kots , Viacheslav S. Chukanov

Understanding the effects of interventions is central to scientific progress, with randomized controlled trials (RCTs) regarded as the gold standard for causal inference in many applied fields. However, RCTs are costly, time-consuming, and…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-27 Drago Plecko , Patrik Okanovic , Torsten Hoefler , Elias Bareinboim

Unmeasured confounding presents a significant challenge in causal inference from observational studies. Classical approaches often rely on collecting proxy variables, such as instrumental variables. However, in applications where the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-01-16 Xiaochuan Shi , Dehan Kong , Linbo Wang

The traditional model specification of stepped-wedge cluster-randomized trials assumes a homogeneous treatment effect across time while adjusting for fixed-time effects. However, when treatment effects vary over time, the constant effect…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-04-22 Zhe Chen , Wei Wang , Yingying Lu , Scott D. Halpern , Katherine R. Courtright , Fan Li , Michael O. Harhay

Two problems that arise in making causal inferences for non-mortality outcomes such as bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) are unmeasured confounding and censoring by death, i.e., the outcome is only observed when subjects survive. In…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-02-20 Kwonsang Lee , Scott A. Lorch , Dylan S. Small

Traditional instrumental variable (IV) estimators face a fundamental constraint: they can only accommodate as many endogenous treatment variables as available instruments. This limitation becomes particularly challenging in settings where…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-06-25 Shiangyi Lin , Hui Lan , Vasilis Syrgkanis