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In this article, we consider identification, estimation, and inference procedures for treatment effect parameters using Difference-in-Differences (DiD) with (i) multiple time periods, (ii) variation in treatment timing, and (iii) when the…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2020-12-02 Brantly Callaway , Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna

Unmeasured confounding presents a common challenge in observational studies, potentially making standard causal parameters unidentifiable without additional assumptions. Given the increasing availability of diverse data sources, exploiting…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-09-18 Shanshan Luo , Yechi Zhang , Wei Li

One of the central goals of causal machine learning is the accurate estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects from observational data. In recent years, meta-learning has emerged as a flexible, model-agnostic paradigm for estimating…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2024-11-14 Henri Arno , Paloma Rabaey , Thomas Demeester

Estimating how a treatment affects different individuals, known as heterogeneous treatment effect estimation, is an important problem in empirical sciences. In the last few years, there has been a considerable interest in adapting machine…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-10-18 Christopher Tran , Keith Burghardt , Kristina Lerman , Elena Zheleva

Predicting customers' long-term revenue from sparse and irregular transaction data is central to marketing resource allocation in non-contractual settings, yet existing approaches face a trade-off. Traditional probabilistic customer base…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-04-27 Jeffrey Näf , Riana Valera Mbelson , Markus Meierer

Temporal causal representation learning is a powerful tool for uncovering complex patterns in observational studies, which are often represented as low-dimensional time series. However, in many real-world applications, data are…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-07-21 Jianhong Chen , Meng Zhao , Mostafa Reisi Gahrooei , Xubo Yue

Time-series forecasting often faces challenges due to data volatility, which can lead to inaccurate predictions. Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) has emerged as a promising technique to mitigate volatility by decomposing data into…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-09-05 Hafizh Raihan Kurnia Putra , Novanto Yudistira , Tirana Noor Fatyanosa

Current methods for time series forecasting struggle in the online scenario, since it is difficult to preserve long-term dependency while adapting short-term changes when data are arriving sequentially. Although some recent methods solve…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-02-19 Ruichu Cai , Haiqin Huang , Zhifang Jiang , Zijian Li , Changze Zhou , Yuequn Liu , Yuming Liu , Zhifeng Hao

This study investigates the identification power gained by combining experimental data, in which treatment is randomized, with observational data, in which treatment is self-selected, for distributional treatment effect (DTE) parameters.…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-04-24 Shosei Sakaguchi

This paper studies the confounding effects from the unmeasured confounders and the imbalance of observed confounders in IV regression and aims at unbiased causal effect estimation. Recently, nonlinear IV estimators were proposed to allow…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2022-11-21 Anpeng Wu , Kun Kuang , Ruoxuan Xiong , Bo Li , Fei Wu

A popular method for estimating a causal treatment effect with observational data is the difference-in-differences (DiD) model. In this work, we consider an extension of the classical DiD setting to the hierarchical context in which data…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-10-17 James Normington , Eric F. Lock , Thomas A. Murray , Caroline S. Carlin

Evaluating treatment effect heterogeneity widely informs treatment decision making. At the moment, much emphasis is placed on the estimation of the conditional average treatment effect via flexible machine learning algorithms. While these…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-05-07 Lihua Lei , Emmanuel J. Candès

Domain adaptation and covariate shift are big issues in deep learning and they ultimately affect any causal inference algorithms that rely on deep neural networks. Causal effect variational autoencoder (CEVAE) is trained to predict the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-09-22 Daniel Jiwoong Im , Kyunghyun Cho , Narges Razavian

Data from observational studies (OSs) is widely available and readily obtainable yet frequently contains confounding biases. On the other hand, data derived from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) helps to reduce these biases; however, it…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-10-30 Dong Yao , Caizhi Tang , Qing Cui , Longfei Li

Estimation of individualized treatment effects (ITE) from observational studies is a fundamental problem in causal inference and holds significant importance across domains, including healthcare. However, limited observational datasets pose…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-02-14 Vinod Kumar Chauhan , Jiandong Zhou , Ghadeer Ghosheh , Soheila Molaei , David A. Clifton

In social media platforms, user behavior is often influenced by interactions with other users, complicating the accurate estimation of causal effects in traditional A/B experiments. This study investigates situations where an individual's…

社会与信息网络 · 计算机科学 2024-02-21 Lu Deng , Yilin Li , JingJing Zhang , Yong Wang , Chuan Chen

The conditional average treatment effect (CATE) is frequently estimated to refute the homogeneous treatment effect assumption. Under this assumption, all units making up the population under study experience identical benefit from a given…

Interventional effects have been proposed as a solution to the unidentifiability of natural (in)direct effects under mediator-outcome confounders affected by the exposure. Such confounders are an intrinsic characteristic of studies with…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-03-30 Iván Díaz , Nicholas Williams , Kara E. Rudolph

Individual Treatment Effect (ITE) estimation is an extensively researched problem, with applications in various domains. We model the case where there exists heterogeneous non-compliance to a randomly assigned treatment, a typical situation…

The instrumental variable (IV) design is a common approach to address hidden confounding bias. For validity, an IV must impact the outcome only through its association with the treatment. In addition, IV identification has required a…

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