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While recent advancements in foundation models have significantly impacted machine learning, rigorous tests on the performance of time series foundation models (TSFMs) remain largely underexplored. This paper presents an empirical study…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-01-09 Syamantak Datta Gupta

Long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) involves predicting a large number of future values of a time series based on the past values. This is an essential task in a wide range of domains including weather forecasting, stock market…

Benefiting from high capacity for capturing complex temporal patterns, deep learning (DL) has significantly advanced time series forecasting (TSF). However, deep models tend to suffer from severe overfitting due to the inherent…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-10-30 Yisong Fu , Zezhi Shao , Chengqing Yu , Yujie Li , Zhulin An , Qi Wang , Yongjun Xu , Fei Wang

In recent years, both online and offline deep learning models have been developed for time series forecasting. However, offline deep forecasting models fail to adapt effectively to changes in time-series data, while online deep forecasting…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-02-06 Mohamed Mejri , Chandramouli Amarnath , Abhijit Chatterjee

Diffusion models have achieved state-of-the-art performance in generative modeling tasks across various domains. Prior works on time series diffusion models have primarily focused on developing conditional models tailored to specific…

Financial time series forecasting presents significant challenges due to complex nonlinear relationships, temporal dependencies, variable interdependencies and limited data availability, particularly for tasks involving low-frequency data,…

综合金融 · 定量金融 2025-07-11 Ben A. Marconi

Forecasting multivariate time series data, which involves predicting future values of variables over time using historical data, has significant practical applications. Although deep learning-based models have shown promise in this field,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-06-16 Zahra Fatemi , Minh Huynh , Elena Zheleva , Zamir Syed , Xiaojun Di

Machine learning for time-series forecasting remains a key area of research. Despite successful application of many machine learning techniques, relating computational efficiency to forecast error remains an under-explored domain. This…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-09-28 Elin Törnquist , Wagner Costa Santos , Timothy Pogue , Nicholas Wingle , Robert A. Caulk

Multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting is vital in fields like weather, energy, and finance. However, despite deep learning advancements, traditional Transformer-based models often diminish the effect of crucial inter-variable…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-03-03 Yanhong Li , David C. Anastasiu

This paper introduces a new approach for Multivariate Time Series forecasting that jointly infers and leverages relations among time series. Its modularity allows it to be integrated with current univariate methods. Our approach allows to…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-03-08 Victor Garcia Satorras , Syama Sundar Rangapuram , Tim Januschowski

Multivariate time-series forecasting holds immense value across diverse applications, requiring methods to effectively capture complex temporal and inter-variable dynamics. A key challenge lies in uncovering the intrinsic patterns that…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-03-12 Liang Yu , Lai Tu , Xiang Bai

Time series data is a key element of big data analytics, commonly found in domains such as finance, healthcare, climate forecasting, and transportation. In large scale real world settings, such data is often high dimensional and…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-08-14 Younghwi Kim , Dohee Kim , Joongrock Kim , Sunghyun Sim

In recent work on time-series prediction, Transformers and even large language models have garnered significant attention due to their strong capabilities in sequence modeling. However, in practical deployments, time-series prediction often…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-02-17 Wenxuan Xie , Fanpu Cao

We consider the problem of parameter estimation using weakly supervised datasets, where a training sample consists of the input and a partially specified annotation, which we refer to as the output. The missing information in the annotation…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2012-06-22 M. Pawan Kumar , Ben Packer , Daphne Koller

Time series data are prone to noise in various domains, and training samples may contain low-predictability patterns that deviate from the normal data distribution, leading to training instability or convergence to poor local minima.…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-02-19 Xu Zhang , Peng Wang , Yichen Li , Wei Wang

Time series forecasting is a critical task across domains such as energy, finance, and meteorology, where accurate predictions enable informed decision-making. While transformer-based and large-parameter models have recently achieved…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-02-11 Julien Guité-Vinet , Alexandre Blondin Massé , Éric Beaudry

In Internet of things (IoT), data is continuously recorded from different data sources and devices can suffer faults in their embedded electronics, thus leading to a high-dimensional data sets and concept drift events. Therefore, methods…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-07-22 Hugo Vinicius Bitencourt , Frederico Gadelha Guimarães

Time series forecasting plays an increasingly important role in modern business decisions. In today's data-rich environment, people often aim to choose the optimal forecasting model for their data. However, identifying the optimal model…

应用统计 · 统计学 2021-12-17 Xixi Li , Fotios Petropoulos , Yanfei Kang

Multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF) is crucial for decision-making to precisely forecast the future values/trends, based on the complex relationships identified from historical observations of multiple sequences. Recently,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-05-21 Chengqing Yu , Fei Wang , Zezhi Shao , Tangwen Qian , Zhao Zhang , Wei Wei , Yongjun Xu

Conventional time-series forecasting methods typically aim to minimize overall prediction error, without accounting for the varying importance of different forecast ranges in downstream applications. We propose a training methodology that…