相关论文: Modeling Multivariate Positive-Valued Time Series …

In this paper, we propose a computationally valid and theoretically justified methods, the likelihood ratio scan method (LRSM), for estimating multiple change-points in a piecewise stationary generalized conditional integer-valued…

Vector autoregressive (VAR) models have become a staple in the analysis of multivariate time series and are formulated in the time domain as difference equations, with an implied covariance structure. In many contexts, it is desirable to…

This tutorial shows how various Bayesian survival models can be fitted using the integrated nested Laplace approximation in a clear, legible, and comprehensible manner using the INLA and INLAjoint R-packages. Such models include accelerated…

We analyze the accuracy and sample complexity of variational Monte Carlo approaches to simulate the dynamics of many-body quantum systems classically. By systematically studying the relevant stochastic estimators, we are able to: (i) prove…

We introduce a general approach for modeling the dynamic of multivariate time series when the data are of mixed type (binary/count/continuous). Our method is quite flexible and conditionally on past values, each coordinate at time $t$ can…

Many modern time-series datasets contain large numbers of output response variables sampled for prolonged periods of time. For example, in neuroscience, the activities of 100s-1000's of neurons are recorded during behaviors and in response…

Many economic variables feature changes in their conditional mean and volatility, and Time Varying Vector Autoregressive Models are often used to handle such complexity in the data. Unfortunately, when the number of series grows, they…

This article proposes methods to model nonstationary temporal graph processes. This corresponds to modelling the observation of edge variables (relationships between objects) indicating interactions between pairs of nodes (or objects)…

Latent Gaussian copula models provide a powerful means to perform multi-view data integration since these models can seamlessly express dependencies between mixed variable types (binary, continuous, zero-inflated) via latent Gaussian…

This paper introduces sparse dynamic chain graph models for network inference in high dimensional non-Gaussian time series data. The proposed method parametrized by a precision matrix that encodes the intra time-slice conditional…

Variational Bayes (VB) is a popular tool for Bayesian inference in statistical modeling. Recently, some VB algorithms are proposed to handle intractable likelihoods with applications such as approximate Bayesian computation. In this paper,…

Deep latent variable models have achieved significant empirical successes in model-based reinforcement learning (RL) due to their expressiveness in modeling complex transition dynamics. On the other hand, it remains unclear theoretically…

The INLA approach for approximate Bayesian inference for latent Gaussian models has been shown to give fast and accurate estimates of posterior marginals and also to be a valuable tool in practice via the R-package R-INLA. In this paper we…

We propose a clustered local projection (clustered LP) method to estimate impulse response functions in a class of time-varying models where parameter variation is linked to a low-dimensional matrix of observables. We show that the…

The cross-lagged panel model (CLPM) has been widely used, particularly in psychology, to infer longitudinal relations among variables. At the same time, controlling for between-person heterogeneity and capturing within-person relations as…

This work introduces a regime-aware in-context learning framework that leverages large language models (LLMs) for financial volatility forecasting under nonstationary market conditions. The proposed approach deploys pretrained LLMs to…

We propose a computationally efficient Learning Model Predictive Control (LMPC) scheme for constrained optimal control of a class of nonlinear systems where the state and input can be reconstructed using lifted outputs. For the considered…

In this paper we consider sparse and identifiable linear latent variable (factor) and linear Bayesian network models for parsimonious analysis of multivariate data. We propose a computationally efficient method for joint parameter and model…

In this paper, a systematic approach is developed to embed the dynamical description of a nonlinear system into a linear parameter-varying (LPV) system representation. Initially, the nonlinear functions in the model representation are…

One popular approach for nonstructural economic and financial forecasting is to include a large number of economic and financial variables, which has been shown to lead to significant improvements for forecasting, for example, by the…