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The marginal likelihood plays an important role in many areas of Bayesian statistics such as parameter estimation, model comparison, and model averaging. In most applications, however, the marginal likelihood is not analytically tractable…

This paper introduces a Bayesian framework that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, dimensionality reduction, and neural density estimation to efficiently handle inverse problems that (i) must be solved multiple times, and…

计算工程、金融与科学 · 计算机科学 2026-02-24 Giacomo Bottacini , Matteo Torzoni , Andrea Manzoni

The performance of Gaussian Process (GP) regression is often hampered by the curse of dimensionality, which inflates computational cost and reduces predictive power in high-dimensional problems. Variable selection is thus crucial for…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-11-24 Minshen Xu , Shiwei Lan , Lulu Kang

As opaque predictive models increasingly impact many areas of modern life, interest in quantifying the importance of a given input variable for making a specific prediction has grown. Recently, there has been a proliferation of…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-07-20 Yue Gao , Abby Stevens , Rebecca Willet , Garvesh Raskutti

The stochastic variational inference (SVI) paradigm, which combines variational inference, natural gradients, and stochastic updates, was recently proposed for large-scale data analysis in conjugate Bayesian models and demonstrated to be…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-02-05 Rishit Sheth , Roni Khardon

Bayesian inference often faces a trade-off between computational speed and sampling accuracy. We propose an adaptive workflow that integrates rapid amortized inference with gold-standard MCMC techniques to achieve a favorable combination of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-02-19 Chengkun Li , Aki Vehtari , Paul-Christian Bürkner , Stefan T. Radev , Luigi Acerbi , Marvin Schmitt

Bayesian inference allows to obtain useful information on the parameters of models, either in computational statistics or more recently in the context of Bayesian Neural Networks. The computational cost of usual Monte Carlo methods for…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-03-03 Inass Sekkat , Gabriel Stoltz

Stochastic variational inference (SVI) employs stochastic optimization to scale up Bayesian computation to massive data. Since SVI is at its core a stochastic gradient-based algorithm, horizontal parallelism can be harnessed to allow larger…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-01-16 Saad Mohamad , Abdelhamid Bouchachia , Moamar Sayed-Mouchaweh

We propose Diffusion Model Variational Inference (DMVI), a novel method for automated approximate inference in probabilistic programming languages (PPLs). DMVI utilizes diffusion models as variational approximations to the true posterior…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-11-23 Simon Dirmeier , Fernando Perez-Cruz

We introduce a new empirical Bayes approach for large-scale multiple linear regression. Our approach combines two key ideas: (i) the use of flexible "adaptive shrinkage" priors, which approximate the nonparametric family of scale mixture of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-06-13 Youngseok Kim , Wei Wang , Peter Carbonetto , Matthew Stephens

Generalized variational inference (GVI) provides an optimization-theoretic framework for statistical estimation that encapsulates many traditional estimation procedures. The typical GVI problem is to compute a distribution of parameters…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2023-10-27 Aurya S. Javeed , Drew P. Kouri , Thomas M. Surowiec

A key design constraint when implementing Monte Carlo and variational inference algorithms is that it must be possible to cheaply and exactly evaluate the marginal densities of proposal distributions and variational families. This takes…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-11-22 Alexander K. Lew , Marco Cusumano-Towner , Vikash K. Mansinghka

Sequential Monte Carlo has become a standard tool for Bayesian Inference of complex models. This approach can be computationally demanding, especially when initialized from the prior distribution. On the other hand, deter-ministic…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-07-26 Sophie Donnet , Stéphane Robin

Frequently, population studies feature pyramidally-organized data represented using Hierarchical Bayesian Models (HBM) enriched with plates. These models can become prohibitively large in settings such as neuroimaging, where a sample is…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-03-09 Louis Rouillard , Demian Wassermann

The graphical lasso is a widely used algorithm for fitting undirected Gaussian graphical models. However, for inference on functionals of edge values in the learned graph, standard tools lack formal statistical guarantees, such as control…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-04-01 Sofia Guglielmini , Gerda Claeskens , Snigdha Panigrahi

This paper proposes a fast two-stage variational Bayesian (VB) algorithm to estimate unrestricted panel spatial autoregressive models. Using Dirichlet-Laplace priors, we are able to uncover the spatial relationships between cross-sectional…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2023-08-23 Deborah Gefang , Stephen G. Hall , George S. Tavlas

Penalized B-splines are routinely used in additive models to describe smooth changes in a response with quantitative covariates. It is typically done through the conditional mean in the exponential family using generalized additive models…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-05-12 Philippe Lambert

Amortized variational inference (AVI) replaces instance-specific local inference with a global inference network. While AVI has enabled efficient training of deep generative models such as variational autoencoders (VAE), recent empirical…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-07-25 Yoon Kim , Sam Wiseman , Andrew C. Miller , David Sontag , Alexander M. Rush

In Bayesian statistics, the marginal likelihood is used for model selection and averaging, yet it is often challenging to compute accurately for complex models. Approaches such as bridge sampling, while effective, may suffer from issues of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-02-24 Giorgio Micaletto , Aki Vehtari

This paper is an exposition of how BRIDGE and adaptive LASSO can be used in a two-stage least squares problem, to estimate the second-stage coefficients when the number of parameters p in both stages is growing with the sample size n.…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-12-02 Eleftheria Kelekidou