相关论文: Multistage Hierarchical Capture-Recapture Models

Counterfactual explanations utilize feature perturbations to analyze the outcome of an original decision and recommend an actionable recourse. We argue that it is beneficial to provide several alternative explanations rather than a single…

We present a Bayesian nonparametric system reliability model which scales well and provides a great deal of flexibility in modeling. The Bayesian approach naturally handles the disparate amounts of component and subsystem data that may…

Traditional epidemic detection algorithms make decisions using only local information. We propose a novel approach that explicitly models spatial information fusion from several metapopulations. Our method also takes into account…

Approximate Bayesian inference on the basis of summary statistics is well-suited to complex problems for which the likelihood is either mathematically or computationally intractable. However the methods that use rejection suffer from the…

Collected data, which is used for analysis or prediction tasks, often have a hierarchical structure, for example, data from various people performing the same task. Modeling the data's structure can improve the reliability of the derived…

Standard linear modeling approaches make potentially simplistic assumptions regarding the structure of categorical effects that may obfuscate more complex relationships governing data. For example, recent work focused on the two-way…

We consider an evolving system for which a sequence of observations is being made, with each observation revealing additional information about current and past states of the system. We suppose each observation is made without error, but…

Considering the flexibility and applicability of Bayesian modeling, in this work we revise the main characteristics of two hierarchical models in a regression setting. We study the full probabilistic structure of the models along with the…

Growing anthropogenic pressures have increased the need for robust predictive models. Meeting this demand requires approaches that can handle bigger data to yield forecasts that capture the variability and underlying uncertainty of…

Hierarchical models are increasingly used in many applications. Along with this increased use comes a desire to investigate whether the model is compatible with the observed data. Bayesian methods are well suited to eliminate the many…

Replication studies are essential for assessing the credibility of claims from original studies. A critical aspect of designing replication studies is determining their sample size; a too small sample size may lead to inconclusive studies…

We develop a Bayesian framework for variable selection in linear regression with autocorrelated errors, accommodating lagged covariates and autoregressive structures. This setting occurs in time series applications where responses depend on…

Methods for population estimation and inference have evolved over the past decade to allow for the incorporation of spatial information when using capture-recapture study designs. Traditional approaches to specifying spatial…

This paper considers multiple binary hypothesis tests with adaptive allocation of sensing resources from a shared budget over a small number of stages. A Bayesian formulation is provided for the multistage allocation problem of minimizing…

To investigate intervention effects on rare events, meta-analysis techniques are commonly applied in order to assess the accumulated evidence. When it comes to adverse effects in clinical trials, these are often most adequately handled…

Complex data features, such as unmodelled censored event times and variables with time-dependent effects, are common in cancer recurrence studies and pose challenges for Bayesian survival modelling. Current methodologies for predictive…

This paper introduces factored conditional filters, new filtering algorithms for simultaneously tracking states and estimating parameters in high-dimensional state spaces. The conditional nature of the algorithms is used to estimate…

Bayesian calibration of computer models tunes unknown input parameters by comparing outputs with observations. For model outputs that are distributed over space, this becomes computationally expensive because of the output size. To overcome…

We present a novel technique for learning the mass matrices in samplers obtained from discretized dynamics that preserve some energy function. Existing adaptive samplers use Riemannian preconditioning techniques, where the mass matrices are…

Parameter estimates for associated genetic variants, report ed in the initial discovery samples, are often grossly inflated compared to the values observed in the follow-up replication samples. This type of bias is a consequence of the…