相关论文: Bayesian evidence-driven likelihood selection for …

We present mathematical and conceptual foundations for the task of robust amplitude estimation using engineered likelihood functions (ELFs), a framework introduced in Wang et al. [PRX Quantum 2, 010346 (2021)] that uses Bayesian inference…

We discuss the use of the Bayesian evidence ratio, or Bayes factor, for model selection in astronomy. We treat the evidence ratio as a statistic and investigate its distribution over an ensemble of experiments, considering both simple…

Approximate Bayesian computing is a powerful likelihood-free method that has grown increasingly popular since early applications in population genetics. However, complications arise in the theoretical justification for Bayesian inference…

Recent research has found that diagnostic performance with Bayesian belief networks is often surprisingly insensitive to imprecision in the numerical probabilities. For example, the authors have recently completed an extensive study in…

This study applied Bayesian optimization likelihood-free inference(BOLFI) to virus dynamics experimental data and efficiently inferred the model parameters with uncertainty measure. The computational benefit is remarkable compared to…

Enlightening our understanding of the first galaxies responsible for driving reionisation requires detecting the 21-cm signal from neutral hydrogen. Interpreting the wealth of information embedded in this signal requires Bayesian inference.…

The Bayesian evidence is a key tool in model selection, allowing a comparison of models with different numbers of parameters. Its use in analysis of cosmological models has been limited by difficulties in calculating it, with current…

Separating a stochastic gravitational wave background (SGWB) from noise is a challenging statistical task. One approach to establishing a detection criterion for the SGWB is using Bayesian evidence. If the evidence ratio (Bayes factor)…

Tree-based priors for probability distributions are usually specified using a predetermined, data-independent collection of candidate recursive partitions of the sample space. To characterize an unknown target density in detail over the…

The likelihood function is a crucial element of parameter estimation. In analyses of galaxy overdensities and weak lensing shear, one often approximates the likelihood of the power spectrum with a Gaussian distribution. The posterior…

Bayesian estimation is increasingly popular for performing model based inference to support policymaking. These data are often collected from surveys under informative sampling designs where subject inclusion probabilities are designed to…

Generalised Bayesian inference updates prior beliefs using a loss function, rather than a likelihood, and can therefore be used to confer robustness against possible mis-specification of the likelihood. Here we consider generalised Bayesian…

Several strategies have been developed recently to ensure valid inference after model selection; some of these are easy to compute, while others fare better in terms of inferential power. In this paper, we consider a selective inference…

Measurement of the global 21-cm signal during Cosmic Dawn (CD) and the Epoch of Reionization (EoR) is made difficult by bright foreground emission which is 2-5 orders of magnitude larger than the expected signal. Fitting for a…

Smooth window functions are often applied to strain data when inferring the parameters describing the astrophysical sources of gravitational-wave transients. Within the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA collaboration, it is conventional to include a term to…

Seismic full waveform inversion (FWI) is a powerful technique to generate high resolution images of the Earth's interior. However, significant uncertainty exists in all FWI solutions due to imperfect acquisition geometries, inherent noise…

Nested sampling provides an estimate of the evidence of a Bayesian inference problem via probing the likelihood as a function of the enclosed prior volume. However, the lack of precise values of the enclosed prior mass of the samples…

We consider inference from non-random samples in data-rich settings where high-dimensional auxiliary information is available both in the sample and the target population, with survey inference being a special case. We propose a regularized…

Likelihood-free inference provides a rigorous approach to preform Bayesian analysis using forward simulations only. The main advantage of likelihood-free methods is its ability to account for complex physical processes and observational…

In studies of exoplanet atmospheres using transmission spectroscopy, Bayesian retrievals are the most popular form of analysis. In these procedures it is common to adopt a Gaussian likelihood. However, this implicitly assumes that the upper…