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It is valuable for any decision maker to know the impact of decisions (treatments) on average and for subgroups. The causal machine learning literature has recently provided tools for estimating group average treatment effects (GATE) to…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-01-10 Nora Bearth , Michael Lechner

The simultaneous application of multiple treatments is increasingly common in many fields, such as healthcare and marketing. In such scenarios, it is important to estimate the single treatment effects and the interaction treatment effects…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-11-14 Yuki Murakami , Takumi Hattori , Kohsuke Kubota

Even in a carefully designed randomized trial, outcomes for some study participants can be missing, or more precisely, ill-defined, because participants had died prior to date of outcome collection. This problem, known as truncation by…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-09-27 Tamir Zehavi , Daniel Nevo

Counterfactual explanations (CFEs) guide users on how to adjust inputs to machine learning models to achieve desired outputs. While existing research primarily addresses static scenarios, real-world applications often involve data or model…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-02-11 Ignacy Stępka , Mateusz Lango , Jerzy Stefanowski

Personalized decision making requires the knowledge of potential outcomes under different treatments, and confidence intervals about the potential outcomes further enrich this decision-making process and improve its reliability in…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-05-22 Zonghao Chen , Ruocheng Guo , Jean-François Ton , Yang Liu

Estimating how much an intervention helps a given individual the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) is increasingly central to decision-making in medicine, economics, and policy, where an estimate is most useful when accompanied by…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-05-28 Eichi Uehara

Matching has become the mainstream in counterfactual inference, with which selection bias between sample groups can be significantly eliminated. However in practice, when estimating average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) via…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2022-06-14 Boyang You , Kerry Papps

This paper provides estimation and inference methods for a conditional average treatment effects (CATE) characterized by a high-dimensional parameter in both homogeneous cross-sectional and unit-heterogeneous dynamic panel data settings. In…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-12-13 Vira Semenova , Matt Goldman , Victor Chernozhukov , Matt Taddy

Estimating an individual's potential response to interventions from observational data is of high practical relevance for many domains, such as healthcare, public policy or economics. In this setting, it is often the case that combinations…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-03-23 Sonali Parbhoo , Stefan Bauer , Patrick Schwab

When drawing causal inferences about the effects of multiple treatments on clustered survival outcomes using observational data, we need to address implications of the multilevel data structure, multiple treatments, censoring and unmeasured…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-02-18 Liangyuan Hu , Jiayi Ji , Ronald D. Ennis , Joseph W. Hogan

Counterfactual estimation using synthetic controls is one of the most successful recent methodological developments in causal inference. Despite its popularity, the current description only considers time series aligned across units and…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-02-03 Alexis Bellot , Mihaela van der Schaar

Plausible identification of conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) may rely on controlling for a large number of variables to account for confounding factors. In these high-dimensional settings, estimation of the CATE requires…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2023-01-18 Adam Baybutt , Manu Navjeevan

Confounding bias and selection bias bring two significant challenges to the validity of conclusions drawn from applied causal inference. The latter can stem from informative missingness, such as in cases of attrition. We introduce the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-03-25 Johan de Aguas , Johan Pensar , Tomás Varnet Pérez , Guido Biele

Synthetic control (SC) methods have gained rapid popularity in economics recently, where they have been applied in the context of inferring the effects of treatments on standard continuous outcomes assuming linear input-output relations. In…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-02-19 Alicia Curth , Hoifung Poon , Aditya V. Nori , Javier González

Counterfactual explanations enhance interpretability by identifying alternative inputs that produce different outputs, offering localized insights into model decisions. However, traditional methods often neglect causal relationships,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-05-23 Pouria Fatemi , Ehsan Sharifian , Mohammad Hossein Yassaee

Predicting the impact of treatments from observational data only still represents a majorchallenge despite recent significant advances in time series modeling. Treatment assignments are usually correlated with the predictors of the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-02-25 Edward De Brouwer , Javier González Hernández , Stephanie Hyland

Heterogeneous effect estimation plays a crucial role in causal inference, with applications across medicine and social science. Many methods for estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) have been proposed in recent years,…

统计理论 · 数学 2023-08-22 Edward H. Kennedy

There is a dearth of robust methods to estimate the causal effects of multiple treatments when the outcome is binary. This paper uses two unique sets of simulations to propose and evaluate the use of Bayesian Additive Regression Trees…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-01-22 Liangyuan Hu , Chenyang Gu , Michael Lopez , Jiayi Ji , Juan Wisnivesky

As an important problem in causal inference, we discuss the estimation of treatment effects (TEs). Representing the confounder as a latent variable, we propose Intact-VAE, a new variant of variational autoencoder (VAE), motivated by the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-04-22 Pengzhou Wu , Kenji Fukumizu

Estimating an individual's counterfactual outcomes under interventions is a challenging task for traditional causal inference and supervised learning approaches when the outcome is high-dimensional (e.g. gene expressions, facial images) and…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-03-19 Yulun Wu , Louie McConnell , Claudia Iriondo