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Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) represent a gold standard when developing policy guidelines. However, RCTs are often narrow, and lack data on broader populations of interest. Causal effects in these populations are often estimated using…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-03-07 Zeshan Hussain , Michael Oberst , Ming-Chieh Shih , David Sontag

Statisticians show growing interest in estimating and analyzing heterogeneity in causal effects in observational studies. However, there usually exists a trade-off between accuracy and interpretability for developing a desirable estimator…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-06-26 Steven Siwei Ye , Yanzhen Chen , Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla

Randomized controlled trials are the standard method for estimating causal effects, ensuring sufficient statistical power and confidence through adequate sample sizes. However, achieving such sample sizes is often challenging. This study…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-03-28 Keisuke Hanada , Masahiro Kojima

Estimating Individual Treatment Effects (ITE) in multi-treatment scenarios faces two critical challenges: the Hyperparameter Selection Dilemma for balancing weights and the Curse of Dimensionality in computational scalability. This paper…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-05 Wanting Liang , Haoang Chi , Zhiheng Zhang

Estimating the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) from observational data is relevant for many applications such as personalized medicine. Here, we focus on the widespread setting where the observational data come from multiple…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-06-05 Jonas Schweisthal , Dennis Frauen , Mihaela van der Schaar , Stefan Feuerriegel

Counterfactual explanations (CEs) are a powerful means for understanding how decisions made by algorithms can be changed. Researchers have proposed a number of desiderata that CEs should meet to be practically useful, such as requiring…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-09-26 Marco Virgolin , Saverio Fracaros

Causal inference, or counterfactual prediction, is central to decision making in healthcare, policy and social sciences. To de-bias causal estimators with high-dimensional data in observational studies, recent advances suggest the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-10-20 Shuxi Zeng , Serge Assaad , Chenyang Tao , Shounak Datta , Lawrence Carin , Fan Li

Counterfactual explanations play an important role in detecting bias and improving the explainability of data-driven classification models. A counterfactual explanation (CE) is a minimal perturbed data point for which the decision of the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-10-27 Donato Maragno , Jannis Kurtz , Tabea E. Röber , Rob Goedhart , Ş. Ilker Birbil , Dick den Hertog

Randomized experiments have become a cornerstone of evidence-based decision-making in contexts ranging from online platforms to public health. However, in experimental settings with network interference, a unit's treatment can influence…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-10-22 Sadegh Shirani , Yuwei Luo , William Overman , Ruoxuan Xiong , Mohsen Bayati

Counterfactual causal inference faces significant challenges when extended to multi-category, multi-valued treatments, where complex cross-effects between heterogeneous interventions are difficult to model. Existing methodologies remain…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-11-04 Xiaopeng Ke , Yihan Yu , Ruyue Zhang , Zhishuo Zhou , Fangzhou Shi , Chang Men , Zhengdan Zhu

The estimation of individual treatment effects (ITE) focuses on predicting the outcome changes that result from a change in treatment. A fundamental challenge in observational data is that while we need to infer outcome differences under…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-12-23 Zichuan Lin , Xiaokai Huang , Jiate Liu , Yuxuan Han , Jia Chen , Xiapeng Wu , Deheng Ye

We address the problem of integrating data from multiple, possibly biased, observational and interventional studies, to eventually compute counterfactuals in structural causal models. We start from the case of a single observational dataset…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2023-03-17 Marco Zaffalon , Alessandro Antonucci , David Huber , Rafael Cabañas

Predictions under interventions are estimates of what a person's risk of an outcome would be if they were to follow a particular treatment strategy, given their individual characteristics. Such predictions can give important input to…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-06-17 Ruth H. Keogh , Nan van Geloven

Counterfactual prediction is about predicting outcome of the unobserved situation from the data. For example, given patient is on drug A, what would be the outcome if she switch to drug B. Most of existing works focus on modeling…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-10-29 Yanbo Xu , Cao Xiao , Jimeng Sun

Heterogeneous treatment effects, which vary according to individual covariates, are crucial in fields such as personalized medicine and tailored treatment strategies. In many applications, rather than considering the heterogeneity induced…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-08-26 Peng Wu , Pengtao Zeng , Zhaoqing Tian , Shaojie Wei

Counterfactual explanations (CEs) are advocated as being ideally suited to providing algorithmic recourse for subjects affected by the predictions of machine learning models. While CEs can be beneficial to affected individuals, recent work…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-02-06 Junqi Jiang , Francesco Leofante , Antonio Rago , Francesca Toni

Causal inference across multiple data sources offers a promising avenue to enhance the generalizability and replicability of scientific findings. However, data integration methods for time-to-event outcomes, common in biomedical research,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-05-16 Yi Liu , Alexander W. Levis , Ke Zhu , Shu Yang , Peter B. Gilbert , Larry Han

We introduce an algorithm for identifying interpretable subgroups with elevated treatment effects, given an estimate of individual or conditional average treatment effects (CATE). Subgroups are characterized by ``rule sets'' --…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-07-15 Albert Chiu

We investigate the problem of machine learning-based (ML) predictive inference on individual treatment effects (ITEs). Previous work has focused primarily on developing ML-based meta-learners that can provide point estimates of the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-08-30 Ahmed Alaa , Zaid Ahmad , Mark van der Laan

When treating depression, clinicians are interested in determining the optimal treatment for a given patient, which is challenging given the amount of treatments available. To advance individualized treatment allocation, integrating data…