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We study the problem of inferring heterogeneous treatment effects from time-to-event data. While both the related problems of (i) estimating treatment effects for binary or continuous outcomes and (ii) predicting survival outcomes have been…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-01-25 Alicia Curth , Changhee Lee , Mihaela van der Schaar

Traditional causal inference approaches leverage observational study data to estimate the difference in observed and unobserved outcomes for a potential treatment, known as the Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE). However, CATE…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-09-22 Tianhui Zhou , William E Carson , David Carlson

In causal inference, encouragement designs (EDs) are widely used to analyze causal effects, when randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are impractical or compliance to treatment cannot be perfectly enforced. Unlike RCTs, which directly…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-12-20 Anpeng Wu , Kun Kuang , Ruoxuan Xiong , Xiangwei Chen , Zexu Sun , Fei Wu , Kun Zhang

Estimating an individual's potential outcomes under counterfactual treatments is a challenging task for traditional causal inference and supervised learning approaches when the outcome is high-dimensional (e.g. gene expressions, impulse…

Uncertainty quantification for individual treatment effects (ITEs) is a daunting challenge in causal inference. Motivated by recent advances in conformal prediction, several works aim to construct distribution-free prediction sets for ITEs…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-07 Chongguang Tao , Zheng Zhou , Yuhong Yang

Most of the widely used estimators of the average treatment effect (ATE) in causal inference rely on the assumptions of unconfoundedness and overlap. Unconfoundedness requires that the observed covariates account for all correlations…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-07-01 Yang Cai , Alkis Kalavasis , Katerina Mamali , Anay Mehrotra , Manolis Zampetakis

Individual Treatment Effect (ITE) estimation is an extensively researched problem, with applications in various domains. We model the case where there exists heterogeneous non-compliance to a randomly assigned treatment, a typical situation…

Methods for estimating heterogeneous treatment effect in observational data have largely focused on continuous or binary outcomes, and have been relatively less vetted with survival outcomes. Using flexible machine learning methods in the…

应用统计 · 统计学 2021-07-09 Liangyuan Hu , Jiayi Ji , Fan Li

With an increasing focus on precision medicine in medical research, numerous studies have been conducted in recent years to clarify the relationship between treatment effects and patient characteristics. The treatment effects for patients…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-09-22 Ke Wan , Kensuke Tanioka , Toshio Shimokawa

Estimating the effects of interventions on patient outcome is one of the key aspects of personalized medicine. Their inference is often challenged by the fact that the training data comprises only the outcome for the administered treatment,…

Treatment effect estimation can assist in effective decision-making in e-commerce, medicine, and education. One popular application of this estimation lies in the prediction of the impact of a treatment (e.g., a promotion) on an outcome…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-09-26 Xiaofeng Lin , Guoxi Zhang , Xiaotian Lu , Han Bao , Koh Takeuchi , Hisashi Kashima

For observational studies, we study the sensitivity of causal inference when treatment assignments may depend on unobserved confounders. We develop a loss minimization approach for estimating bounds on the conditional average treatment…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-03-11 Steve Yadlowsky , Hongseok Namkoong , Sanjay Basu , John Duchi , Lu Tian

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in survival settings is complicated by right censoring as well as the time-varying nature of the estimand. While the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) provides a natural target, most…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-14 Yuming Sun , Jian Kang , Yi Li

In this paper, we introduce a unified estimator to analyze various treatment effects in causal inference, including but not limited to the average treatment effect (ATE) and the quantile treatment effect (QTE). The proposed estimator is…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-03-31 Kuan-Hsun Wu , Li-Pang Chen

While sample sizes in randomized clinical trials are large enough to estimate the average treatment effect well, they are often insufficient for estimation of treatment-covariate interactions critical to studying data-driven precision…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-04-22 Steve Yadlowsky , Fabio Pellegrini , Federica Lionetto , Stefan Braune , Lu Tian

Individualized treatment rules can lead to better health outcomes when patients have heterogeneous responses to treatment. Very few individualized treatment rule estimation methods are compatible with a multi-treatment observational study…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-11-14 Owen E. Leete , Nathan Kallus , Michael G. Hudgens , Sonia Napravnik , Michael R. Kosorok

Individual treatment effect (ITE) is often regarded as the ideal target of inference in causal analyses and has been the focus of several recent studies. In this paper, we describe the intrinsic limits regarding what can be learned…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-06-10 Zhehao Zhang , Thomas S. Richardson

Recently, conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation has been attracting much attention due to its importance in various fields such as statistics, social and biomedical sciences. This study proposes a partially linear…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-01-31 Shunsuke Horii

An important aspect of the performance of algorithms that predict individualized treatment effects (ITE) is moderate calibration, i.e., the average treatment effect among individuals with predicted treatment effect of z being equal to z.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-12-10 Mohsen Sadatsafavi , Jeroen Hoogland , Thomas P. A. Debray , John Petkau

This thesis develops methods for causal inference and causal representation learning (CRL) in high-dimensional, time-varying data. The first contribution introduces the Causal Dynamic Variational Autoencoder (CDVAE), a model for estimating…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-12-05 Mouad EL Bouchattaoui