相关论文: Bayesian inference for asymptomatic COVID-19 infec…

With the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, understanding the characteristics of the virus has become an important and challenging task in the scientific community. While tests do exist for COVID-19, the goal of our research is to explore other…

As the outbreak of COVID-19 enters its third year, we have now enough data to analyse the behavior of the pandemic with mathematical models over a long period of time. The pandemic alternates periods of high and low infections, in a way…

The usual development cycles are too slow for the development of vaccines, diagnostics and treatments in pandemics such as the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Given the pressure in such a situation, there is a risk that findings of early…

We demonstrate an approach to replicate and forecast the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic using the toolkit of probabilistic programming languages (PPLs). Our goal is to study the impact of various modeling assumptions and…

Decision making in the face of a disaster requires the consideration of several complex factors. In such cases, Bayesian multi-criteria decision analysis provides a framework for decision making. In this paper, we present how to construct a…

As COVID-19 is rapidly spreading across the globe, short-term modeling forecasts provide time-critical information for decisions on containment and mitigation strategies. A main challenge for short-term forecasts is the assessment of key…

We develop a Bayesian inference framework to quantify uncertainties in epidemiological models. We use SEIJR and SIJR models involving populations of susceptible, exposed, infective, diagnosed, dead and recovered individuals to infer from…

It is crucial for policymakers to understand the community prevalence of COVID-19 so combative resources can be effectively allocated and prioritized during the COVID-19 pandemic. Traditionally, community prevalence has been assessed…

There has been widespread use of causal inference methods for the rigorous analysis of observational studies and to identify policy evaluations. In this article, we consider a class of generalized coarsened procedures for confounding. At a…

In the initial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic we observed great discrepancies in both infection and mortality rates between countries. Besides the biological and epidemiological factors, a multitude of social and economic criteria also…

The correct evaluation of the reproductive number $R$ for COVID-19 -- which characterizes the average number of secondary cases generated by each typical primary case -- is central in the quantification of the potential scope of the…

The COVID-19 infection cases have surged globally, causing devastations to both the society and economy. A key factor contributing to the sustained spreading is the presence of a large number of asymptomatic or hidden spreaders, who mix…

There is increasing evidence that one of the most difficult problems in trying to control the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic is the presence of a large cohort of asymptomatic infectives. We develop a SIR-type model taking into account the…

Purpose: Artificial intelligence (AI) techniques have been extensively utilized for diagnosing and prognosis of several diseases in recent years. This study identifies, appraises and synthesizes published studies on the use of AI for the…

Recent seroprevalence studies have tried to estimate the real number of asymptomatic cases affected by COVID-19. It is of paramount importance to understand the impact of these infections in order to prevent a second wave. This study aims…

In this paper, we develop an extension of standard epidemiological models, suitable for COVID-19. This extension incorporates the transmission due to pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic carriers of the virus. Furthermore, this model also…

Phenomenological and deterministic models are often used for the estimation of transmission parameters in an epidemic and for the prediction of its growth trajectory. Such analyses are usually based on single peak outbreak dynamics. In…

The synthetic control method is an empirical methodology forcausal inference using observational data. By observing thespread of COVID-19 throughout the world, we analyze the dataon the number of deaths and cases in different regions…

There are many hard-to-reconcile numbers circulating concerning Covid-19. Using reports from random testing, the fatality ratio per infection is evaluated and used to extract further information on the actual fraction of infections and the…

Comparing how different populations have suffered under COVID-19 is a core part of ongoing investigations into how public policy and social inequalities influence the number of and severity of COVID-19 cases. But COVID-19 incidence can vary…