相关论文: Exact Anytime-valid Confidence Intervals for Conti…

We develop E-variables for testing whether two or more data streams come from the same source or not, and more generally, whether the difference between the sources is larger than some minimal effect size. These E-variables lead to exact,…

Probability forecasts for binary events play a central role in many applications. Their quality is commonly assessed with proper scoring rules, which assign forecasts a numerical score such that a correct forecast achieves a minimal…

Adaptive clinical trials rely on interim analyses, flexible stopping, and data-dependent design modifications that complicate statistical guarantees when fixed-horizon test statistics are repeatedly inspected or reused after adaptations.…

Forecasting and forecast evaluation are inherently sequential tasks. Predictions are often issued on a regular basis, such as every hour, day, or month, and their quality is monitored continuously. However, the classical statistical tools…

Conformal prediction is a powerful framework for distribution-free uncertainty quantification. The standard approach to conformal prediction relies on comparing the ranks of prediction scores: under exchangeability, the rank of a future…

A/B tests are typically analyzed via frequentist p-values and confidence intervals; but these inferences are wholly unreliable if users endogenously choose samples sizes by *continuously monitoring* their tests. We define *always valid*…

Confidence intervals are central to statistical inference as a tool to evaluate the type I error risk at a given significance level. We devise a method to construct confidence intervals using a single run of a permutation test. This…

We propose a sequential, anytime-valid method to test the conditional independence of a response $Y$ and a predictor $X$ given a random vector $Z$. The proposed test is based on e-statistics and test martingales, which generalize likelihood…

Statistical hypothesis tests typically use prespecified sample sizes, yet data often arrive sequentially. Interim analyses invalidate classical error guarantees, while existing sequential methods require rigid testing preschedules or incur…

E-variables are nonnegative random variables with expected value at most one under any distribution from a given null hypothesis. Every nonasymptotically valid test can be obtained by thresholding some e-variable. As such, e-variables arise…

E-values have recently emerged as a robust and flexible alternative to p-values for hypothesis testing, especially under optional continuation, i.e., when additional data from further experiments are collected. In this work, we define…

E-variables are a relatively new approach for testing statistical hypotheses that has been experiencing major development during the last several years. In this paper we introduce the method of e-variable-approximability and use it to…

A novel confidence interval estimator is proposed for the risk difference in noninferiority binomial trials. The confidence interval is consistent with an exact unconditional test that preserves the type-I error, and has improved power,…

Confidence intervals are a popular way to visualize and analyze data distributions. Unlike p-values, they can convey information both about statistical significance as well as effect size. However, very little work exists on applying…

Sequential decision making significantly speeds up research and is more cost-effective compared to fixed-n methods. We present a method for sequential decision making for stratified count data that retains Type-I error guarantee or false…

Expert systems applications that involve uncertain inference can be represented by a multidimensional contingency table. These tables offer a general approach to inferring with uncertain evidence, because they can embody any form of…

We introduce the anytime-valid (AV) logrank test, a version of the logrank test that provides type-I error guarantees under optional stopping and optional continuation. The test is sequential without the need to specify a maximum sample…

A standard practice in statistical hypothesis testing is to mention the p-value alongside the accept/reject decision. We show the advantages of mentioning an e-value instead. With p-values, it is not clear how to use an extreme observation…

We provide a general condition under which e-variables in the form of a simple-vs.-simple likelihood ratio exist when the null hypothesis is a composite, multivariate exponential family. Such `simple' e-variables are easy to compute and…

Estimation of the complete distribution of a random variable is a useful primitive for both manual and automated decision making. This problem has received extensive attention in the i.i.d. setting, but the arbitrary data dependent setting…