相关论文: Exact Anytime-valid Confidence Intervals for Conti…

Exact tests greatly improve the analysis of contingency tables when marginals are low. For instance, researchers often use Fisher's exact test, which is conditional, or Barnard's test, which is unconditional but needs to deal with a…

In most prediction and estimation situations, scientists consider various statistical models for the same problem, and naturally want to select amongst the best. Hansen et al. (2011) provide a powerful solution to this problem by the…

Confidence sequences are anytime-valid analogues of classical confidence intervals that do not suffer from multiplicity issues under optional continuation of the data collection. As in classical statistics, asymptotic confidence sequences…

Motivated by monitoring the arrival of incoming adverse events such as customer support calls or crash reports from users exposed to an experimental product change, we consider sequential hypothesis testing of continuous-time inhomogeneous…

Consider panel data modelled by a linear random intercept model that includes a time-varying covariate. Suppose that we have uncertain prior information that this covariate is exogenous. We present a new confidence interval for the slope…

We consider the estimation of rare-event probabilities using sample proportions output by naive Monte Carlo or collected data. Unlike using variance reduction techniques, this naive estimator does not have a priori relative efficiency…

We present a novel and easy-to-use method for calibrating error-rate based confidence intervals to evidence-based support intervals. Support intervals are obtained from inverting Bayes factors based on a parameter estimate and its standard…

The e-value is gaining traction as a robust alternative to p-values and Bayes factors for quantifying statistical evidence. e-values are a promising method for adaptive clinical trials due to their anytime-validity: e-values ensure type I…

In contingency table analysis, the odds ratio is a commonly applied measure used to summarize the degree of association between two categorical variables, say R and S. Suppose now that for each individual in the table, a vector of…

We consider parameter estimation, hypothesis testing and variable selection for partially time-varying coefficient models. Our asymptotic theory has the useful feature that it can allow dependent, nonstationary error and covariate…

Expansion was introduced at the end of the 1970s for calculating principal typings for $\lambda$-terms in intersection type systems. Expansion variables (E-variables) were introduced at the end of the 1990s to simplify and help mechanise…

We study e-values for quantifying evidence against exchangeability and general invariance of a random variable under a compact group. We start by characterizing such e-values, and explaining how they nest traditional group invariance tests…

Categorical variables are of uttermost importance in biomedical research. When two of them are considered, it is often the case that one wants to test whether or not they are statistically dependent. We show weaknesses of classical methods…

Conformal prediction is a popular method to construct prediction intervals with marginal coverage guarantees from black-box machine learning models. In applications with potentially high-impact events, such as flooding or financial crises,…

We propose a new statistical hypothesis testing framework which decides visually, using confidence intervals, whether the means of two samples are equal or if one is larger than the other. With our method, the user can at the same time…

A recurring debate in the philosophy of statistics concerns what, exactly, should count as a measure of evidence for or against a given hypothesis. P-values, likelihood ratios, and Bayes factors all have their defenders. In this paper we…

Quality statistical inference requires a sufficient amount of data, which can be missing or hard to obtain. To this end, prediction-powered inference has risen as a promising methodology, but existing approaches are largely limited to…

Compared to p-values, e-values provably guarantee safe, valid inference. If the goal is to test multiple hypotheses simultaneously, one can construct e-values for each individual test and then use the recently developed e-BH procedure to…

We describe an algorithm for the sequential sampling of entries in multiway contingency tables with given constraints. The algorithm can be used for computations in exact conditional inference. To justify the algorithm, a theory relates…

We derive confidence intervals and confidence sequences for causal effects in situations where the back-door or front-door criteria are applicable. Our tightest confidence intervals hold in the standard setting where the training data…