相关论文: Coverage Properties of Empirical Bayes Intervals

Bayesian methods provide a natural means for uncertainty quantification, that is, credible sets can be easily obtained from the posterior distribution. But is this uncertainty quantification valid in the sense that the posterior credible…

Quantifying uncertainty in neural networks is a highly relevant problem which is essential to many applications. The two predominant paradigms to tackle this task are Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) and deep ensembles. Despite some…

Prediction intervals are commonly used in meta-analysis with random-effects models. One widely used method, the Higgins-Thompson-Spiegelhalter prediction interval, replaces the heterogeneity parameter with its point estimate, but its…

Empirical Bayes methods are widely used for large-scale inference, yet most classical approaches assume homoscedastic observations and focus primarily on posterior mean estimation. We develop a nonparametric empirical Bayes framework for…

This survey reviews the existing literature on the most relevant Bayesian inference methods for univariate and multivariate GARCH models. The advantages and drawbacks of each procedure are outlined as well as the advantages of the Bayesian…

Recently, there has been great interest in estimating the conditional average treatment effect using flexible machine learning methods. However, in practice, investigators often have working hypotheses about effect heterogeneity across…

Familiar statistical tests and estimates are obtained by the direct observation of cases of interest: a clinical trial of a new drug, for instance, will compare the drug's effects on a relevant set of patients and controls. Sometimes,…

We consider the problem of constructing confidence intervals for nonparametric functional data analysis using empirical likelihood. In this doubly infinite-dimensional context, we demonstrate the Wilks's phenomenon and propose a…

This paper studies large sample properties of a Bayesian approach to inference about slope parameters $\gamma$ in linear regression models with a structural break. In contrast to the conventional approach to inference about $\gamma$ that…

While linear mixed modeling methods are foundational concepts introduced in any statistical education, adequate general methods for interval estimation involving models with more than a few variance components are lacking, especially in the…

Don Fraser has given an interesting account of the agreements and disagreements between Bayesian posterior probabilities and confidence levels. In this comment I discuss some cases where the lack of such agreement is extreme. I then discuss…

Practical or scientific considerations often lead to selecting a subset of parameters as ``important.'' Inferences about those parameters often are based on the same data used to select them in the first place. That can make the reported…

The paper proposes an estimator to make inference of heterogeneous treatment effects sorted by impact groups (GATES) for non-randomised experiments. The groups can be understood as a broader aggregation of the conditional average treatment…

Bayesian approaches have become increasingly popular in causal inference problems due to their conceptual simplicity, excellent performance and in-built uncertainty quantification ('posterior credible sets'). We investigate Bayesian…

The vast majority of the literature on learning dynamical systems or stochastic processes from time series has focused on stable or ergodic systems, for both Bayesian and frequentist inference procedures. However, most real-world systems…

We give an approach for characterizing interference by lower bounding the number of units whose outcome depends on selected groups of treated individuals, such as depending on the treatment of others, or others who are at least a certain…

This paper revisits the simple, but empirically salient, problem of inference on a real-valued parameter that is partially identified through upper and lower bounds with asymptotically normal estimators. A simple confidence interval is…

We compute bias, variance, and approximate confidence intervals for the efficiency of a random selection process under various special conditions that occur in practical data analysis. We consider the following cases: a) the number of…

When knowledge is obtained from a database, it is only possible to deduce confidence intervals for probability values. With confidence intervals replacing point values, the results in the set covering model include interval constraints for…

We congratulate the authors on their exciting paper, which introduces a novel idea for assessing the estimation bias in causal estimates. Doubly robust estimators are now part of the standard set of tools in causal inference, but a typical…