相关论文: Models for digitally contact-traced epidemics

The recent outbreak of COVID-19 has taken the world by surprise, forcing lockdowns and straining public health care systems. COVID-19 is known to be a highly infectious virus, and infected individuals do not initially exhibit symptoms,…

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a severe global pandemic that has claimed millions of lives and continues to overwhelm public health systems in many countries. The spread of COVID-19 pandemic has negatively impacted the human…

One of the more widely advocated solutions for slowing down the spread of COVID-19 has been automated contact tracing. Since proximity data can be collected by personal mobile devices, the natural proposal has been to use this for automated…

In this work we analyze mathematically the consequences and effectiveness of strategies to control an epidemic in the framework of classical SEIR models with multiple parallel infectious stages. We define the mathematical concept of a…

This work constructs, analyzes, and simulates a new compartmental SEIR-type model for the dynamics and potential control of the current COVID-19 pandemic. The novelty in this work is two-fold. First, the population is divided according to…

We present a new mathematical model to explicitly capture the effects that the three restriction measures: the lockdown date and duration, social distancing and masks, and, schools and border closing, have in controlling the spread of…

In the absence of any available vaccines or drugs, prevention of the spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is being achieved by putting many mitigation measures in place. It is indispensable to have robust and reliable ways…

After the blockade that many nations suffered to stop the growth of the incidence curve of COVID-19 during the first half of 2020, they face the challenge of resuming their social and economic activity. The rapid airborne transmissibility…

A generalization of the standard susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) stochastic model for epidemics in sparse random networks is introduced which incorporates contact tracing in addition to random screening. We propose a deterministic…

We outline a contact-tracing strategy based on proximity sensing using mobile devices. We discuss what an ideal system should look like and what it can do. We show that, when adopted sufficiently broadly, such a contact-tracing strategy can…

We make a retrospective review on various control measures taken by 127 countries/territories during the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic until July 7, 2020, and evaluate their impacts on the epidemic dynamics quantitatively. The SEIR-QD…

We present a System Dynamics (SD) model of the Covid-19 pandemic spread in India. The detailed age-structured compartment-based model endogenously captures various disease transmission pathways, expanding significantly from the standard…

Contact tracing systems control the spread of disease by discovering the set of people an infectious individual has come into contact with. Students are often mobile and sociable and therefore can contribute to the spread of disease.…

Contact tracing and quarantine are well established non-pharmaceutical epidemic control tools. The paper aims to clarify the impact of these measures in COVID-19 epidemic. A new deterministic model is introduced (SEIRQ: susceptible,…

The 2019 Novel Corona virus infection (COVID 19) is an ongoing public health emergency of international focus. Significant gaps persist in our knowledge of COVID 19 epidemiology, transmission dynamics, investigation tools and management,…

In this paper, we present a simple method to integrate risk-contact data, obtained via digital contact monitoring (DCM) apps, in conventional compartmental transmission models. During the recent COVID-19 pandemic, many such data have been…

Infectious disease transmission dynamics are particularly sensitive to social contact patterns, and the precautions people take to limit disease transmission. It depends on the age distribution of the community. Thus, knowing the…

Contact tracing is an important measure to counter the COVID-19 pandemic. In the early phase, many countries employed manual contact tracing to contain the rate of disease spread, however it has many issues. The manual approach is…

Social distancing has been enacted in order to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. Like many authors, we adopt the classic epidemic SIR model, where the infection rate is the control variable. Its differential flatness property yields ele…

Contact tracing is one of the most important control measures deployed during epidemics. Relying on the identification of contacts of known infected individuals, it necessitates a network perspective. Although pairwise models have been used…