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In lattice quantum field theory studies, parameters defining the lattice theory must be tuned toward criticality to access continuum physics. Commonly used Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods suffer from critical slowing down in this…

高能物理 - 格点 · 物理学 2021-06-04 Gurtej Kanwar

Inference is typically intractable in high-treewidth undirected graphical models, making maximum likelihood learning a challenge. One way to overcome this is to restrict parameters to a tractable set, most typically the set of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2015-11-02 Justin Domke

Probabilistic databases play a crucial role in the management and understanding of uncertain data. However, incorporating probabilities into the semantics of incomplete databases has posed many challenges, forcing systems to sacrifice…

数据库 · 计算机科学 2015-03-17 Michael Wick , Andrew McCallum , Gerome Miklau

We study Markov chains for $\alpha$-orientations of plane graphs, these are orientations where the outdegree of each vertex is prescribed by the value of a given function $\alpha$. The set of $\alpha$-orientations of a plane graph has a…

组合数学 · 数学 2023-06-22 Stefan Felsner , Daniel Heldt

Reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) proposals that achieve reasonable acceptance rates and mixing are notoriously difficult to design in most applications. Inspired by recent advances in deep neural network-based normalizing…

统计计算 · 统计学 2023-02-28 Laurence Davies , Robert Salomone , Matthew Sutton , Christopher Drovandi

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have become a cornerstone of many modern scientific analyses by providing a straightforward approach to numerically estimate uncertainties in the parameters of a model using a sequence of random…

其他统计学 · 统计学 2020-03-10 Joshua S. Speagle

Adaptive Monte Carlo methods can be viewed as implementations of Markov chains with infinite memory. We derive a general condition for the convergence of a Monte Carlo method whose history dependence is contained within the simulated…

计算物理 · 物理学 2007-05-23 David J. Earl , Michael W. Deem

It is commonly admitted that non-reversible Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms usually yield more accurate MCMC estimators than their reversible counterparts. In this note, we show that in addition to their variance reduction…

统计计算 · 统计学 2019-08-27 Marie Vialaret , Florian Maire

We demonstrate the use of a variational method to determine a quantitative lower bound on the rate of convergence of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms as a function of the target density and proposal density. The bound relies on…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2013-05-29 Fergal P. Casey , Joshua J. Waterfall , Ryan N. Gutenkunst , Christopher R. Myers , James P. Sethna

A key quantity of interest in Bayesian inference are expectations of functions with respect to a posterior distribution. Markov Chain Monte Carlo is a fundamental tool to consistently compute these expectations via averaging samples drawn…

机器学习 · 统计学 2015-02-10 Heiko Strathmann , Dino Sejdinovic , Mark Girolami

We introduce an efficient numerical implementation of a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to sample a probability distribution on a manifold (introduced theoretically in Zappa, Holmes-Cerfon, Goodman (2018)), where the manifold is defined by…

统计计算 · 统计学 2023-08-22 Kerun Xu , Miranda Holmes-Cerfon

We study a recently introduced gradient-based Markov chain Monte Carlo method based on 'Barker dynamics'. We provide a full derivation of the method from first principles, placing it within a wider class of continuous-time Markov jump…

统计计算 · 统计学 2021-09-03 Max Hird , Samuel Livingstone , Giacomo Zanella

We show that Markov couplings can be used to improve the accuracy of Markov chain Monte Carlo calculations in some situations where the steady-state probability distribution is not explicitly known. The technique generalizes the notion of…

数值分析 · 数学 2015-05-13 Jonathan B. Goodman , Kevin K. Lin

Strongly Rayleigh distributions are natural generalizations of product and determinantal probability distributions and satisfy strongest form of negative dependence properties. We show that the "natural" Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) is…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2016-03-25 Nima Anari , Shayan Oveis Gharan , Alireza Rezaei

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques are now widely used for cosmological parameter estimation. Chains are generated to sample the posterior probability distribution obtained following the Bayesian approach. An important issue is how…

天体物理学 · 物理学 2009-11-10 Joanna Dunkley , Martin Bucher , Pedro G. Ferreira , Kavilan Moodley , Constantinos Skordis

To calibrate Fourier analysis of $S_5$ ranking data by Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques, a set of moves (Markov basis) is needed. We calculate this basis, and use it to provide a new statistical analysis of two data sets. The calculation…

交换代数 · 数学 2007-06-13 Persi Diaconis , Nicholas Eriksson

Decomposable graphs are known for their tedious and complicated Markov update steps. Instead of modelling them directly, this work introduces a class of tree-dependent bipartite graphs that span the projective space of decomposable graphs.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-10-11 Mohamad Elmasri

Many scientific and engineering problems require to perform Bayesian inferences in function spaces, in which the unknowns are of infinite dimension. In such problems, many standard Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms become arbitrary…

数值分析 · 数学 2016-04-12 Zhe Feng , Jinglai Li

With the fast growth of wind power penetration, power systems need additional flexibility to cope with wind power ramping. Several electricity markets have established requirements for flexible ramping capacity (FRC) reserves. This paper…

物理与社会 · 物理学 2017-12-05 Zhiwen Wang , Chen Shen , Feng Liu , Jianhui Wang , Xiangyu Wu

Proximal Markov Chain Monte Carlo is a novel construct that lies at the intersection of Bayesian computation and convex optimization, which helped popularize the use of nondifferentiable priors in Bayesian statistics. Existing formulations…

统计计算 · 统计学 2023-01-24 Qiang Heng , Hua Zhou , Eric C. Chi