相关论文: A Generalization of Lanchester's Model of Warfare

An overview of Lanchester combat models, emphasising their pedagogical possibilities. After a description of the aimed-fire model and comments on the literature, we introduce briefly a range of further topics: a discrete equivalent, the…

Lanchester's model of combat has certain deficiencies in its standard form arising from the neglect of the influence of random fluctuations. Several approaches to rectify this have been proposed and various results are scattered throughout…

One of the most notable aspects of mathematical modeling is that it sheds light on the complexities arising from changes in parameters and their real-world implications, thus gaining better insight into the dynamics of economic, political,…

Major revolts have recently erupted in parts of the Middle East with substantial international repercussions. Predicting, coping with and winning those revolts have become a grave problem for many regimes and for world powers. We propose a…

We present a generalisation of the classical Lanchester model for directed fire between two combat forces but now employing networks for the manoeuvre of Blue and Red forces, and the pattern of engagement between the two. The model…

The conflicts between armed groups often go on for years. The classical model of such conflicts accounts for the number of participants and for the technology level of the equipment of the groups. Below we extend this model in order to…

The outcomes of warfare have rarely only been characterised by the quantity and quality of individual combatant force elements. The ability to manoeuvre and adapt across force elements through effective Command and Control (C2) can allow…

Discrete Lanchester-type attrition models describe many types of antagonistic situations; the preferred interpretation is two fleets of battleships, each trying to sink the other. Such models may be characterised by a bivariate recurrence…

In this paper, a non-linear Lanchester-type model involving supply units is introduced. The model describes a battle where the Blue party consisting of one armed force $B$ is fighting against the Red party. The Red party consists of $n$…

In this paper is presented a framework for treating uncertainty in optimal decision problems occuring in combat situations, in order to robustly select the optimal strategy. A stochastic version of the popular Lanchester's aimed-fire model…

A theoretical model is presented which provides a way to simulate, at a very abstract level, power struggles in the social world. In the model, agents can benefit or harm each other, to varying degrees and with differing levels of…

Armed conflict data display scaling and universal dynamics in both social and physical properties like fatalities and geographic extent. We propose a randomly branching, armed-conflict model that relates multiple properties to one another…

The principle of least action, a fundamental principle in variational mechanics with broad applicability to classical physical systems, is employed to formulate a novel attrition model for combat dynamics. This formulation extends the…

We consider a model of adversarial dynamics consisting of three populations, labelled Blue, Green and Red, which evolve under a system of first order nonlinear differential equations. Red and Blue populations are adversaries and interact…

Generalized models provide a framework for the study of evolution equations without specifying all functional forms. The generalized formulation of problems has been shown to facilitate the analytical investigation of local dynamics and has…

The human society today is far from perfection and conflicts between groups of humans are frequent events. One example for such conflicts are armed intergroup conflicts. The collective behavior of the large number of cooperating…

Many current challenges involve understanding the complex dynamical interplay between the constituents of systems. Typically, the number of such constituents is high, but only limited data sources on them are available. Conventional…

We are able to unify various disparate claims and results in the literature, that stand in the way of a unified description and understanding of human conflict. First, we provide a reconciliation of the numerically different exponent values…

This article is devoted to the tactical game theoretical interpretation of dialectics. Dialectical games are considered as abstractly as well as models of the internal dialogue and reflection. The models related to the representation theory…

The development of models to capture large-scale dynamics in human history is one of the core contributions of cliodynamics. Most often, these models are assessed by their predictive capability on some macro-scale and aggregated measure and…