相关论文: Recalibration of Predictive Models as Approximate …

As the popularity of hierarchical point forecast reconciliation methods increases, there is a growing interest in probabilistic forecast reconciliation. Many studies have utilized machine learning or deep learning techniques to implement…

Gradient boosting is a prediction method that iteratively combines weak learners to produce a complex and accurate model. From an optimization point of view, the learning procedure of gradient boosting mimics a gradient descent on a…

In the context of computer models, calibration is the process of estimating unknown simulator parameters from observational data. Calibration is variously referred to as model fitting, parameter estimation/inference, an inverse problem, and…

Coherent lower previsions are general probabilistic models allowing incompletely specified probability distributions. However, for complete description of a coherent lower prevision -- even on finite underlying sample spaces -- an infinite…

Probabilistic classifiers output confidence scores along with their predictions, and these confidence scores should be calibrated, i.e., they should reflect the reliability of the prediction. Confidence scores that minimize standard metrics…

Most supervised machine learning tasks are subject to irreducible prediction errors. Probabilistic predictive models address this limitation by providing probability distributions that represent a belief over plausible targets, rather than…

When large language models (LLMs) are asked to perform certain tasks, how can we be sure that their learned representations align with reality? We propose a domain-agnostic framework for systematically evaluating distribution shifts in LLMs…

Linearly transforming stimulus representations of deep neural networks yields high-performing models of behavioral and neural responses to complex stimuli. But does the test accuracy of such predictions identify genuine representational…

Generalized linear models play an essential role in a wide variety of statistical applications. This paper discusses an approximation of the likelihood in these models that can greatly facilitate computation. The basic idea is to replace a…

Forecast reconciliation of multivariate time series is the process of mapping a set of incoherent forecasts into coherent forecasts to satisfy a given set of linear constraints. Commonly used projection matrix based approaches for point…

Distributed training and increasing the gradient update frequency are practical strategies to accelerate learning and improve performance, but both exacerbate a central challenge: \textit{policy lag}, which is the mismatch between the…

With model trustworthiness being crucial for sensitive real-world applications, practitioners are putting more and more focus on improving the uncertainty calibration of deep neural networks. Calibration errors are designed to quantify the…

A new recalibration post-processing method is presented to improve the quality of the posterior approximation when using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) algorithms. Recalibration may be used in conjunction with existing…

Generating calibrated and sharp neural network predictive distributions for regression problems is essential for optimal decision-making in many real-world applications. To address the miscalibration issue of neural networks, various…

Optimization is widely used in statistics, and often efficiently delivers point estimates on useful spaces involving structural constraints or combinatorial structure. To quantify uncertainty, Gibbs posterior exponentiates the negative loss…

Many classification applications require accurate probability estimates in addition to good class separation but often classifiers are designed focusing only on the latter. Calibration is the process of improving probability estimates by…

Approximate Bayesian computation performs approximate inference for models where likelihood computations are expensive or impossible. Instead simulations from the model are performed for various parameter values and accepted if they are…

Analyzing classification model performance is a crucial task for machine learning practitioners. While practitioners often use count-based metrics derived from confusion matrices, like accuracy, many applications, such as weather…

Predicting user response probabilities is vital for ad ranking and bidding. We hope that predictive models can produce accurate probabilistic predictions that reflect true likelihoods. Calibration techniques aim to post-process model…

Logistic regression models for binomial responses are routinely used in statistical practice. However, the maximum likelihood estimate may not exist due to data separability. We address this issue by considering a conjugate prior penalty…