相关论文: Teaching Bayes' Rule using Mosaic Plots

Rule sets are often used in Machine Learning (ML) as a way to communicate the model logic in settings where transparency and intelligibility are necessary. Rule sets are typically presented as a text-based list of logical statements…

A literacy-targeted approach to economic instruction draws on insights from cognitive science. It highlights that students process complex economic information by constructing and modifying schemas that represent economic material.…

Elicitation of probabilities is one of the most laborious tasks in building decision-theoretic models, and one that has so far received only moderate attention in decision-theoretic systems. We propose a set of user interface tools for…

The Bayesian approach to data analysis provides a powerful way to handle uncertainty in all observations, model parameters, and model structure using probability theory. Probabilistic programming languages make it easier to specify and fit…

The probabilistic graphs framework models the uncertainty inherent in real-world domains by means of probabilistic edges whose value quantifies the likelihood of the edge existence or the strength of the link it represents. The goal of this…

The multivariate conditional probability distribution models the effects of a set of variables onto the statistical properties of another set of variables. In the study of systemic risk in a financial system, the multivariate conditional…

This paper introduces a novel type theory and logic for probabilistic reasoning. Its logic is quantitative, with fuzzy predicates. It includes normalisation and conditioning of states. This conditioning uses a key aspect that distinguishes…

Computer simulations have become an important tool across the biomedical sciences and beyond. For many important problems several different models or hypotheses exist and choosing which one best describes reality or observed data is not…

The paper concerns the probabilistic evaluation of plans in the presence of unmeasured variables, each plan consisting of several concurrent or sequential actions. We establish a graphical criterion for recognizing when the effects of a…

Bayesian Networks may be appealing for clinical decision-making due to their inclusion of causal knowledge, but their practical adoption remains limited as a result of their inability to deal with unstructured data. While neural networks do…

We propose a fully Bayesian approach for causal inference with multivariate categorical data based on staged tree models, a class of probabilistic graphical models capable of representing asymmetric and context-specific dependencies. To…

In this paper, the relationship between probabilistic graphical models, in particular Bayesian networks, and causal diagrams, also called structural causal models, is studied. Structural causal models are deterministic models, based on…

Graphical causal models are an important tool for knowledge discovery because they can represent both the causal relations between variables and the multivariate probability distributions over the data. Once learned, causal graphs can be…

We present an econometric framework that adapts tools for scenario analysis, such as variants of conditional forecasts and generalized impulse responses, for use with dynamic nonparametric models. The proposed algorithms are based on…

In this paper we review the concepts of Bayesian evidence and Bayes factors, also known as log odds ratios, and their application to model selection. The theory is presented along with a discussion of analytic, approximate and numerical…

These notes aim at presenting an overview of Bayesian statistics, the underlying concepts and application methodology that will be useful to astronomers seeking to analyse and interpret a wide variety of data about the Universe. The level…

Data clustering, including problems such as finding network communities, can be put into a systematic framework by means of a Bayesian approach. The application of Bayesian approaches to real problems can be, however, quite challenging. In…

One of the pivotal tasks in scientific machine learning is to represent underlying dynamical systems from time series data. Many methods for such dynamics learning explicitly require the derivatives of state data, which are not directly…

Alluvial diagrams are a popular technique for visualizing flow and relational data. However, successfully reading and interpreting the data shown in an alluvial diagram is likely influenced by factors such as data volume, complexity, and…

What do data tell us about physics-and what don't they tell us? There has been a surge of interest in using machine learning models to discover governing physical laws such as differential equations from data, but current methods lack…