相关论文: Bayesian multistate modelling of incomplete chroni…

Additionally to the extensive use in clinical medicine, biological age (BA) in legal medicine is used to assess unknown chronological age (CA) in applications where identification documents are not available. Automatic methods for age…

We study how nonlinear, state-dependent health dynamics shape economic behavior, inequality, and the evaluation of disability insurance at older ages. Using English panel data, we construct a continuous health index and estimate its…

A robust multilevel functional data method is proposed to forecast age-specific mortality rate and life expectancy for two or more populations in developed countries with high-quality vital registration systems. It uses a robust multilevel…

Health policy decisions are often informed by estimates of long-term survival based primarily on short-term data. A range of methods are available to include longer-term information, but there has previously been no comprehensive and…

We describe a new method for evaluating Bayes factors. The key idea is to introduce a hypermodel in which the competing models are components of a mixture distribution. Inference for the mixing probabilities then yields estimates of the…

We propose a new, flexible model for inference of the effect of a binary treatment on a continuous outcome observed over subsequent time periods. The model allows to seperate association due to endogeneity of treatment selection from…

Early, reliable detection of disease outbreaks is a critical problem today. This paper reports an investigation of the use of causal Bayesian networks to model spatio-temporal patterns of a non-contagious disease (respiratory anthrax…

Time to an event of interest over a lifetime is a central measure of the clinical benefit of an intervention used in a health technology assessment (HTA). Within the same trial, multiple end-points may also be considered. For example,…

Multiple sclerosis is a disease that affects the brain and spinal cord, it can lead to severe disability and has no known cure. The majority of prior work in machine learning for multiple sclerosis has been centered around using Magnetic…

Reconstructing transmission networks is essential for identifying key factors like superspreaders and high-risk locations, which are critical for developing effective pandemic prevention strategies. In this study, we developed a Bayesian…

Policy evaluation in empirical microeconomics has been focusing on estimating the average treatment effect and more recently the heterogeneous treatment effects, often relying on the unconfoundedness assumption. We propose a method based on…

Disease progression models are instrumental in predicting individual-level health trajectories and understanding disease dynamics. Existing models are capable of providing either accurate predictions of patients prognoses or clinically…

We develop a mathematical framework to study the economic impact of infectious diseases by integrating epidemiological dynamics with a kinetic model of wealth exchange. The multi-agent description leads to study the evolution over time of a…

The current survey paper concerns stochastic mathematical models for the spread of infectious diseases. It starts with the simplest setting of a homogeneous population in which a transmittable disease spreads during a short outbreak.…

Imputing missing values is an important preprocessing step in data analysis, but the literature offers little guidance on how to choose between different imputation models. This letter suggests adopting the imputation model that generates a…

We propose a Bayesian propensity score-augmented latent factor model for causal inference with time-series cross-sectional data. The framework explicitly models the treatment assignment mechanism by incorporating latent factor loadings,…

In health technology assessment, decisions are based on complex cost-effectiveness models which, to be implemented, require numerous input parameters. When some of relevant estimates are not available the model may have to be simplified.…

In early-phase cancer clinical trials, the limited availability of data presents significant challenges in developing a framework to efficiently quantify treatment effectiveness. To address this, we propose a novel utility-based Bayesian…

This note is concerned with an accurate and computationally efficient variational bayesian treatment of mixed-effects modelling. We focus on group studies, i.e. empirical studies that report multiple measurements acquired in multiple…

Understanding patterns in mortality across subpopulations is essential for local health policy decision making. One of the key challenges of subnational mortality rate estimation is the presence of small populations and zero or near zero…