相关论文: Exact Confidence Bounds in Discrete Models -- Algo…

We study exact confidence intervals and two-sided hypothesis tests for univariate parameters of stochastically increasing discrete distributions, such as the binomial and Poisson distributions. It is shown that several popular methods for…

We review the methods of constructing confidence intervals that account for a priori information about one-sided constraints on the parameter being estimated. We show that the so-called method of sensitivity limit yields a correct solution…

We study two-layer belief networks of binary random variables in which the conditional probabilities Pr[childlparents] depend monotonically on weighted sums of the parents. In large networks where exact probabilistic inference is…

We first review existing sequential methods for estimating a binomial proportion. Afterward, we propose a new family of group sequential sampling schemes for estimating a binomial proportion with prescribed margin of error and confidence…

From the distributional characterizations that lie at the heart of Stein's method we derive explicit formulae for the mass functions of discrete probability laws that identify those distributions. These identities are applied to develop…

In this paper, we derive an explicit formula for constructing the confidence interval of binomial parameter with guaranteed coverage probability. The formula overcomes the limitation of normal approximation which is asymptotic in nature and…

The Poisson distribution is the default choice of likelihood for probabilistic models of count data. However, due to the equidispersion contraint of the Poisson, such models may have predictive uncertainty that is artificially inflated.…

Estimating the parameters from $k$ independent Bin$(n,p)$ random variables, when both parameters $n$ and $p$ are unknown, is relevant to a variety of applications. It is particularly difficult if $n$ is large and $p$ is small. Over the past…

The Eulerian number A(n,k) counts permutations of n symbols with exactly k descents. Motivated by problems in cryptography, several authors have studied the proportion of permutations whose number of descents lies in a fixed congruence…

For the usual normal approximations to binomial, hypergeometric, or Poisson interval probabilities, we collect some simple but then reasonably sharp error bounds. For the Clopper-Pearson~(1934) binomial confidence bounds, we present,…

The seminal result of Johnson and Lindenstrauss on random embeddings has been intensively studied in applied and theoretical computer science. Despite that vast body of literature, we still lack of complete understanding of statistical…

This paper discusses how two classes of approximate computation algorithms can be adapted, in a modular fashion, to achieve exact statistical inference from differentially private data products. Considered are approximate Bayesian…

In this paper, we obtain quantitative, non-asymptotic, and data-dependent \textit{Bernstein-von Mises type} bounds on the normal approximation of the posterior distribution in exponential family models with arbitrary centring and scaling.…

Estimating the unknown number of classes in a population has numerous important applications. In a Poisson mixture model, the problem is reduced to estimating the odds that a class is undetected in a sample. The discontinuity of the odds…

The current definition of a Bayesian credible set cannot, in general, achieve an arbitrarily preassigned credible level. This drawback is particularly acute for classification problems, where there are only a finite number of achievable…

We propose a way to construct fiducial distributions for a multidimensional parameter using a step-by-step conditional procedure related to the inferential importance of the components of the parameter. For discrete models, in which the…

This manuscript studies a general approach to construct confidence sets for the solution of stochastic optimization, rendering empirical risk minimization as special cases. Statistical inference for stochastic optimization poses significant…

I present a critical review of techniques for estimating confidence intervals on binomial population proportions inferred from success counts in small-to-intermediate samples. Population proportions arise frequently as quantities of…

We use Stein's method to obtain bounds on the rate of convergence for a class of statistics in geometric probability obtained as a sum of contributions from Poisson points which are exponentially stabilizing, i.e. locally determined in a…

This paper develops inferential methods for a very general class of ill-posed models in econometrics encompassing the nonparametric instrumental variable regression, various functional regressions, and the density deconvolution. We focus on…