相关论文: Non-parametric multimodel Regional Frequency Analy…

The use of the annual maximum series for flood frequency analyses limits the considered information to one event per year and one sample that is assumed to be homogeneous. However, flood may have different generating processes, such as…

Inference on the extremal behaviour of spatial aggregates of precipitation is important for quantifying river flood risk. There are two classes of previous approach, with one failing to ensure self-consistency in inference across different…

Data assimilation (DA) estimates the state of an evolving dynamical system from noisy, partial observations, and is widely used in scientific simulation as well as weather and climate science. In practice, filtering methods rely on…

In this paper an approach based on expectation maximization (EM) clustering to find the climate regions and a support vector machine to build a predictive model for each of these regions is proposed. To minimize the biases in the…

Human activities accelerate consumption of fossil fuels and produce greenhouse gases, resulting in urgent issues today: global warming and the climate change. These indirectly cause severe natural disasters, plenty of lives suffering and…

We consider the problem of analyzing the heterogeneity of clustering distributions for multiple groups of observed data, each of which is indexed by a covariate value, and inferring global clusters arising from observations aggregated over…

The identification of precipitation regimes is important for many purposes such as agricultural planning, water resource management, and return period estimation. Since precipitation and other related meteorological data typically exhibit…

Global Climate Models (GCMs) are crucial for predicting future climate changes by simulating the Earth systems. However, the GCM Outputs exhibit systematic biases due to model uncertainties, parameterization simplifications, and inadequate…

Estimating and disentangling epistemic uncertainty, uncertainty that is reducible with more training data, and aleatoric uncertainty, uncertainty that is inherent to the task at hand, is critically important when applying machine learning…

Accurate short-term precipitation forecasting is critical for weather-sensitive decision-making in agriculture, transportation, and disaster response. Existing deep learning approaches often struggle to balance global structural consistency…

Extreme streamflow is a key indicator of flood risk, and quantifying the changes in its distribution under non-stationary climate conditions is key to mitigating the impact of flooding events. We propose a non-stationary process mixture…

Extreme environmental events frequently exhibit spatial and temporal dependence. These data are often modeled using max stable processes (MSPs). MSPs are computationally prohibitive to fit for as few as a dozen observations, with supposed…

The focus of our work is improving the interpretability of anomalies in climate models and advancing our understanding of Arctic melt dynamics. The Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets are experiencing rapid surface melting and increased…

Accurate prediction of extreme weather events remains a major challenge for artificial intelligence-based weather prediction systems. While deterministic models such as FuXi, GraphCast, and SFNO have achieved competitive forecast skill…

Seasonal climate forecasts are commonly based on model runs from fully coupled forecasting systems that use Earth system models to represent interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, land and other Earth-system components. Recently,…

Distribution shifts between sites can seriously degrade model performance since models are prone to exploiting unstable correlations. Thus, many methods try to find features that are stable across sites and discard unstable features.…

High-resolution precipitation forecasts are crucial for providing accurate weather prediction and supporting effective responses to extreme weather events. Traditional numerical models struggle with stochastic subgrid-scale processes, while…

The state of the art for physical hazard prediction from weather and climate requires expensive km-scale numerical simulations driven by coarser resolution global inputs. Here, a generative diffusion architecture is explored for downscaling…

Atmospheric composition measurements taken at many high-altitude stations around the world, aim to collect data representative of the free troposphere and of an intercontinental scale. However, the high-altitude environment favours vertical…

Extreme precipitation causes severe societal and economic damage, and weather control has long been discussed as a potential mitigation strategy. However, to the best of our knowledge, perturbation-based interventions for weather control…