相关论文: Unpacking uncertainty in the modelling process for…

Pathways that describe the optimal evolution of energy systems across multiple decades are important in energy system research and policy literature, with net-zero and similar climate policies being common drivers behind them. While there…

Economic assessment in environmental science concerns the measurement or valuation of environmental impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Integrated assessment modeling is a unifying framework of environmental economics, which attempts to…

The assessment of adequacy and security of the energy system requires the detailed knowledge of physical and operational characteristics. In contrast, studies concerning energy transitions employ stylized models that oftentimes ignore the…

In nuclear reactor system design and safety analysis, the Best Estimate plus Uncertainty (BEPU) methodology requires that computer model output uncertainties must be quantified in order to prove that the investigated design stays within…

In recent years, the need for neutral benchmark studies that focus on the comparison of methods from computational sciences has been increasingly recognised by the scientific community. While general advice on the design and analysis of…

Survival models are used in various fields, such as the development of cancer treatment protocols. Although many statistical and machine learning models have been proposed to achieve accurate survival predictions, little attention has been…

Demands on the disaster response capacity of the European Union are likely to increase, as the impacts of disasters continue to grow both in size and frequency. This has resulted in intensive research on issues concerning spatially-explicit…

This research paper delves into the dynamics of a novel ecology model that describes the intricate interplay between radioactivity and cancer cases. Organized into three main sections, the study covers numerical analysis using advanced…

Organisations, whether in government, industry or commerce, are required to make decisions in a complex and uncertain environment. The way models are used is intimately connected to the way organisations make decisions and the context in…

Decision support systems like computer-aided energy system analysis (ESA) are considered one of the main pillars for developing sustainable and reliable energy transformation strategies. Although today's diverse tools can already support…

Sim2real transfer is primarily concerned with transferring policies trained in simulation to potentially noisy real world environments. A common problem associated with sim2real transfer is estimating the real-world environmental parameters…

Given the rapid pace of energy system development, the time has come to reimagine the U.S. Government's capability to model the long-term evolution of the domestic and global energy system. As a primary custodian of these capabilities, the…

Renewable energy sources play a major role in future net-zero energy systems. However, achieving energy system resilience remains challenging, since renewables depend on weather fluctuations, and future energy systems are subject to major…

Development of robust dynamical systems and networks such as autonomous aircraft systems capable of accomplishing complex missions faces challenges due to the dynamically evolving uncertainties coming from model uncertainties, necessity to…

Representing and quantifying uncertainty in physical parameterisations is a central challenge in weather and climate modelling, and approaches are often developed separately for different timescales. Here, we introduce a unified framework…

We focus on two particular aspects of model risk: the inability of a chosen model to fit observed market prices at a given point in time (calibration error) and the model risk due to recalibration of model parameters (in contradiction to…

This paper points out some key drawbacks of today's modeling and control underlying hierarchical electric power system operations and planning as the hidden roadblocks on the way to decarbonization. We suggest that these can be overcome by…

Models for long-term investment planning of the power system typically return a single optimal solution per set of cost assumptions. However, typically there are many near-optimal alternatives that stand out due to other attractive…

Network-based analyses of dynamical systems have become increasingly popular in climate science. Here we address network construction from a statistical perspective and highlight the often ignored fact that the calculated correlation values…

We study the implications of model uncertainty in a climate-economics framework with three types of capital: "dirty" capital that produces carbon emissions when used for production, "clean" capital that generates no emissions but is…