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This paper investigates the problem of efficient constrained global optimization of hybrid models that are a composition of a known white-box function and an expensive multi-output black-box function subject to noisy observations, which…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-07-31 Congwen Lu , Joel A. Paulson

Bayesian statistics has gained popularity in psychological research due to its intuitive uncertainty quantification and convenient information-updating rules. In many applications, however, prior distributions are introduced merely as…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-10 Yang Liu , Jonathan P. Williams , Jan Hannig

The following zero-sum game between nature and a statistician blends Bayesian methods with frequentist methods such as p-values and confidence intervals. Nature chooses a posterior distribution consistent with a set of possible priors. At…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2011-07-19 David R. Bickel

A new method is proposed for the correction of confidence intervals when the original interval does not have the correct nominal coverage probabilities in the frequentist sense. The proposed method is general and does not require any…

统计计算 · 统计学 2013-08-30 P. Menendez , Y. Fan , P. H. Garthwaite , S. A. Sisson

When evaluating and comparing models using leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV), the uncertainty of the estimate is typically assessed using the variance of the sampling distribution. Considering the uncertainty is important, as the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-02-16 Tuomas Sivula , Måns Magnusson , Aki Vehtari

Estimating copulas with discrete marginal distributions is challenging, especially in high dimensions, because computing the likelihood contribution of each observation requires evaluating $2^{J}$ terms, with $J$ the number of discrete…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-11-12 D. Gunawan , M. -N. Tran , K. Suzuki , J. Dick , R. Kohn

A covariant energy density functional is calibrated using a principled Bayesian statistical framework informed by experimental binding energies and charge radii of several magic and semi-magic nuclei. The Bayesian sampling required for the…

核理论 · 物理学 2022-09-28 Pablo Giuliani , Kyle Godbey , Edgard Bonilla , Frederi Viens , Jorge Piekarewicz

Estimation of the mean vector and covariance matrix is of central importance in the analysis of multivariate data. In the framework of generalized linear models, usually the variances are certain functions of the means with the normal…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-01-25 Anupam Kundu , Mohsen Pourahmadi

This paper describes the treatment of systematic uncertainties in a Likelihood formalism. RooUnfold, which includes most of the unfolding methods that are commonly used in particle physics, is used to compare a newly implemented method…

高能物理 - 实验 · 物理学 2025-10-20 Lydia Brenner , Carsten Burgard , Vincent Alexander Croft

This paper concerns the robust regression model when the number of predictors and the number of observations grow in a similar rate. Theory for M-estimators in this regime has been recently developed by several authors [El Karoui et al.,…

统计理论 · 数学 2016-04-06 Daniel Nevo , Ya'acov Ritov

Fully Bayesian Unfolding differs from other unfolding methods by providing the full posterior probability of unfolded spectra for each bin. We extended the method for the feature of regularization which could be helpful for unfolding…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2020-01-17 Petr Baron

The Bayesian Cram\'er-Rao bound (CRB) provides a lower bound on the mean square error of any Bayesian estimator under mild regularity conditions. It can be used to benchmark the performance of statistical estimators, and provides a…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-09-09 Evan Scope Crafts , Xianyang Zhang , Bo Zhao

Unbiased estimators are introduced for averaged Bregman divergences which generalize Stein's Unbiased (Predictive) Risk Estimator, and the minimization of these estimators is proposed as a regularization parameter selection method for…

数值分析 · 数学 2021-11-22 Elias S. Helou , Sandra A. Santos , Lucas E. A. Simões

Bayesian and frequentist inference are two fundamental paradigms in statistical estimation. Bayesian methods treat hypotheses as random variables, incorporating priors and updating beliefs via Bayes' theorem, whereas frequentist methods…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-02-18 Sarthak Mittal , Yoshua Bengio , Nikolay Malkin , Guillaume Lajoie

The difference in restricted mean survival time (RMST) is a clinically meaningful measure to quantify treatment effect in randomized controlled trials, especially when the proportional hazards assumption does not hold. Several frequentist…

Robust regression has attracted a great amount of attention in the literature recently, particularly for taking asymmetricity into account simultaneously and for high-dimensional analysis. However, the majority of research on the topics…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-07-25 Sanna Soomro , Keming Yu , Yan Yu

The universal-set naive Bayes classifier (UNB)~\cite{Komiya:13}, defined using likelihood ratios (LRs), was proposed to address imbalanced classification problems. However, the LR estimator used in the UNB overestimates LRs for…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-10-31 Masato Kikuchi , Tadachika Ozono

In this article a novel approach for training deep neural networks using Bayesian techniques is presented. The Bayesian methodology allows for an easy evaluation of model uncertainty and additionally is robust to overfitting. These are…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-04-03 Konstantin Posch , Jürgen Pilz

The frequentist method of simulated minimum distance (SMD) is widely used in economics to estimate complex models with an intractable likelihood. In other disciplines, a Bayesian approach known as Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-11-16 Jean-Jacques Forneron , Serena Ng

Empirical Bayes small area estimation based on the well-known Fay-Herriot model may produce unreliable estimates when outlying areas exist. Existing robust methods against outliers or model misspecification are generally inefficient when…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-06-28 Daisuke Kurisu , Takuya Ishihara , Shonosuke Sugasawa