相关论文: Prediction of Occurrence of Extreme Events using M…

This paper presents an interpretable review of various machine learning and deep learning models to predict the maintenance of aircraft engine to avoid any kind of disaster. One of the advantages of the strategy is that it can work with…

The problem of nowcasting extreme weather events can be addressed by applying either numerical methods for the solution of dynamic model equations or data-driven artificial intelligence algorithms. Within this latter framework, the present…

In many complex systems, large events are believed to follow power-law, scale-free probability distributions, so that the extreme, catastrophic events are unpredictable. Here, we study coupled chaotic oscillators that display extreme…

Combining strengths from deep learning and extreme value theory can help describe complex relationships between variables where extreme events have significant impacts (e.g., environmental or financial applications). Neural networks learn…

Timely and accurate forecasts of severe weather events are essential for early warning and for constraining downstream analysis and decision-making. Since severe weather events prediction still depends on subjective, time-consuming expert…

Heat waves are projected to increase in frequency and severity with global warming. Improved warning systems would help reduce the associated loss of lives, wildfires, power disruptions, and reduction in crop yields. In this work, we…

Short-term forecasting is an important tool in understanding environmental processes. In this paper, we incorporate machine learning algorithms into a conditional distribution estimator for the purposes of forecasting tropical cyclone…

First-principle simulations are at the heart of the high-energy physics research program. They link the vast data output of multi-purpose detectors with fundamental theory predictions and interpretation. This review illustrates a wide range…

Predictions of thunderstorm-related hazards are needed in several sectors, including first responders, infrastructure management and aviation. To address this need, we present a deep learning model that can be adapted to different hazard…

We propose a framework for studying predictability of extreme events in complex systems. Major conceptual elements -- direct cascading or fragmentation, spatial dynamics, and external driving -- are combined in a classical age-dependent…

Drought is a serious natural disaster that has a long duration and a wide range of influence. To decrease the drought-caused losses, drought prediction is the basis of making the corresponding drought prevention and disaster reduction…

Dynamical weather and climate prediction models underpin many studies of the Earth system and hold the promise of being able to make robust projections of future climate change based on physical laws. However, simulations from these models…

This paper describes a practical approach of using supervised machine learning (ML) models to assist safety investigators to classify aviation occurrences into either incident or serious incident categories. Our implementation currently…

A central problem in uncertainty quantification is how to characterize the impact that our incomplete knowledge about models has on the predictions we make from them. This question naturally lends itself to a probabilistic formulation, by…

The understanding and prediction of large wildland fire events around the world is a growing interdisciplinary research area advanced rapidly by development and use of computational models. Recent models bidirectionally couple computational…

We address the problem of predicting the occurrence of infrequent adverse events in the context of predictive maintenance. We cast the corresponding machine learning task as an imbalanced classification problem and propose a framework for…

Emergency response management (ERM) is a challenge faced by communities across the globe. First responders must respond to various incidents, such as fires, traffic accidents, and medical emergencies. They must respond quickly to incidents…

Risk management in many environmental settings requires an understanding of the mechanisms that drive extreme events. Useful metrics for quantifying such risk are extreme quantiles of response variables conditioned on predictor variables…

Rare events are occurrences that take place with a significantly lower frequency than more common regular events. In manufacturing, predicting such events is particularly important, as they lead to unplanned downtime, shortening equipment…

Human activities generate various event sequences such as taxi trip records, bike-sharing pick-ups, crime occurrence, and infectious disease transmission. The point process is widely used in many applications to predict such events related…