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Two-way fixed effects (TWFE) models are widely used in political science to establish causality, but recent methodological discussions highlight their limitations under heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) and violations of the parallel…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-02-03 Albert Chiu , Xingchen Lan , Ziyi Liu , Yiqing Xu

Externally controlled trials are crucial in clinical development when randomized controlled trials are unethical or impractical. These trials consist of a full treatment arm with the experimental treatment and a full external control arm.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-03-11 Chenyin Gao , Xiang Zhang , Shu Yang

Adversarial robustness refers to a model's ability to resist perturbation of inputs, while distribution robustness evaluates the performance of the model under data shifts. Although both aim to ensure reliable performance, prior work has…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-01-26 Yipei Wang , Zhaoying Pan , Xiaoqian Wang

In typical Stroop experiments, participants perform better when the colors and words are congruent compared to when they are incongruent or neutral. Paradoxically, in some experimental conditions, neutral trials are faster than congruent…

神经元与认知 · 定量生物学 2025-06-03 Ahmad Sohrabi , Robert L. West

Inferring causal effects on long-term outcomes using short-term surrogates is crucial to rapid innovation. However, even when treatments are randomized and surrogates fully mediate their effect on outcomes, it's possible that we get the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-11-09 Aurélien Bibaut , Nathan Kallus , Simon Ejdemyr , Michael Zhao

Marginal structural models are a popular tool for investigating the effects of time-varying treatments, but they require an assumption of no unobserved confounders between the treatment and outcome. With observational data, this assumption…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-06-10 Matthew Blackwell , Soichiro Yamauchi

Exclusion and shape restrictions play a central role in defining causal effects and interpreting estimates in potential outcomes models. To date, the testable implications of such restrictions have been studied on a case-by-case basis in a…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-12-25 Hiroaki Kaido , Kirill Ponomarev

Empirical economists are often deterred from the application of fixed effects binary choice models mainly for two reasons: the incidental parameter problem and the computational challenge even in moderately large panels. Using the example…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2020-10-27 Daniel Czarnowske , Amrei Stammann

Experimentation is widely utilized for causal inference and data-driven decision-making across disciplines. In an A/B experiment, for example, an online business randomizes two different treatments (e.g., website designs) to their customers…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-01-15 Wenxuan Guo , JungHo Lee , Panos Toulis

This paper concerns robust inference on average treatment effects following model selection. In the selection on observables framework, we show how to construct confidence intervals based on a doubly-robust estimator that are robust to…

统计理论 · 数学 2018-04-13 Max H. Farrell

This paper studies the partial identification of treatment effects in Instrumental Variables (IV) settings with binary outcomes under violations of independence. I derive the identified sets for the treatment parameters of interest in the…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-10-03 Pedro Picchetti

Understanding the effect of a feature vector $x \in \mathbb{R}^d$ on the response value (label) $y \in \mathbb{R}$ is the cornerstone of many statistical learning problems. Ideally, it is desired to understand how a set of collected…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-06-22 Mohammad Mehrabi , Ryan A. Rossi

In bipartite causal inference with interference, interventional units might receive treatment or control, and they might affect the outcome of outcome units through their connections on a bipartite network. We study bipartite causal…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-18 Zhaoyan Song , Georgia Papadogeorgou

In this paper, we focus on quantifying model stability as a function of random seed by investigating the effects of the induced randomness on model performance and the robustness of the model in general. We specifically perform a controlled…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-09-24 Pranava Madhyastha , Rishabh Jain

Methods for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) from observational data have largely focused on continuous or binary outcomes, with less attention paid to survival outcomes and almost none to settings with competing risks. In…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-09-30 Shenbo Xu , Raluca Cobzaru , Stan N. Finkelstein , Roy E. Welsch , Kenney Ng , Zach Shahn

Background: Pairwise and network meta-analyses using fixed effect and random effects models are commonly applied to synthesise evidence from randomised controlled trials. The models differ in their assumptions and the interpretation of the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-08-04 Shijie Ren , Jeremy E. Oakley , John W. Stevens

I introduce heterogeneity into the analysis of peer effects that arise from conformity, allowing the strength of the taste for conformity to vary across agents' actions. Using a structural model based on a simultaneous network game with…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-12-01 Mathieu Lambotte

Comparing future antibiotic resistance levels resulting from different antibiotic treatments is challenging because some patients may survive only under one of the antibiotic treatments. We embed this problem within a semi-competing risks…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-06-12 Tamir Zehavi , Uri Obolski , Michal Chowers , Daniel Nevo

The use of twins designs to address causal questions is becoming increasingly popular. A standard assumption is that there is no interference between twins---that is, no twin's exposure has a causal impact on their co-twin's outcome.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-07-10 Bonnie Smith , Elizabeth L. Ogburn , Matt McGue , Saonli Basu , Daniel O. Scharfstein

In experiments that study social phenomena, such as peer influence or herd immunity, the treatment of one unit may influence the outcomes of others. Such "interference between units" violates traditional approaches for causal inference, so…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-08-30 David Choi