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Uncertainty in machine learning refers to the degree of confidence or lack thereof in a model's predictions. While uncertainty quantification methods exist, explanations of uncertainty, especially in high-dimensional settings, remain an…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-07-30 Isaac Roberts , Alexander Schulz , Sarah Schroeder , Fabian Hinder , Barbara Hammer

This paper introduces Uncertainty Propagation Network (UPN), a novel family of neural differential equations that naturally incorporate uncertainty quantification into continuous-time modeling. Unlike existing neural ODEs that predict only…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-02-25 Hadi Jahanshahi , Zheng H. Zhu

Uncertainty quantification in neural networks through methods such as Dropout, Bayesian neural networks and Laplace approximations is either prone to underfitting or computationally demanding, rendering these approaches impractical for…

Neural-net-induced Gaussian process (NNGP) regression inherits both the high expressivity of deep neural networks (deep NNs) as well as the uncertainty quantification property of Gaussian processes (GPs). We generalize the current NNGP to…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-03-27 Guofei Pang , Liu Yang , George Em Karniadakis

Quantifying the uncertainty in the output of a neural network is essential for deployment in scientific or engineering applications where decisions must be made under limited or noisy data. Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) provide a…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-03-10 Alex Alberts , Ilias Bilionis

Model-based Deep Reinforcement Learning (RL) assumes the availability of a model of an environment's underlying transition dynamics. This model can be used to predict future effects of an agent's possible actions. When no such model is…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-12-15 Andreas Sedlmeier , Michael Kölle , Robert Müller , Leo Baudrexel , Claudia Linnhoff-Popien

Gaussian process (GP) regression is a powerful probabilistic modeling technique with built-in uncertainty quantification. When one has access to multiple correlated simulations (tasks), it is common to fit a multitask GP (MTGP) surrogate…

统计计算 · 统计学 2026-03-18 Aleksei G. Sorokin , Pieterjan Robbe , Fred J. Hickernell

Despite the recent progress in deep neural networks (DNNs), it remains challenging to explain the predictions made by DNNs. Existing explanation methods for DNNs mainly focus on post-hoc explanations where another explanatory model is…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-01-04 Wei Qian , Chenxu Zhao , Yangyi Li , Fenglong Ma , Chao Zhang , Mengdi Huai

Uncertainty is a key feature of any machine learning model and is particularly important in neural networks, which tend to be overconfident. This overconfidence is worrying under distribution shifts, where the model performance silently…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-03-18 Arthur Thuy , Dries F. Benoit

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are nonlinear dynamical models commonly used in the machine learning and dynamical systems literature to represent complex dynamical or sequential relationships between variables. More recently, as deep…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-02-08 Patrick L. McDermott , Christopher K. Wikle

Many scientific and engineering processes produce spatially unstructured data. However, most data-driven models require a feature matrix that enforces both a set number and order of features for each sample. They thus cannot be easily…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-09-30 Francis Ogoke , Kazem Meidani , Amirreza Hashemi , Amir Barati Farimani

Graph neural networks (GNNs) find applications in various domains such as computational biology, natural language processing, and computer security. Owing to their popularity, there is an increasing need to explain GNN predictions since…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-11-14 Mert Kosan , Zexi Huang , Sourav Medya , Sayan Ranu , Ambuj Singh

The ability to predict multiple possible future positions of the ego-vehicle given the surrounding context while also estimating their probabilities is key to safe autonomous driving. Most of the current state-of-the-art Deep Learning…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2020-10-05 Thomas Kurbiel , Akash Sachdeva , Kun Zhao , Markus Buehren

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have emerged as powerful tools for predicting outcomes in graph-structured data. However, a notable limitation of GNNs is their inability to provide robust uncertainty estimates, which undermines their…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-10-10 S. Akansha

In many important machine learning applications, the training distribution used to learn a probabilistic classifier differs from the testing distribution on which the classifier will be used to make predictions. Traditional methods correct…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2018-07-12 Kun Kuang , Ruoxuan Xiong , Peng Cui , Susan Athey , Bo Li

The understanding of geographical reality is a process of data representation and pattern discovery. Former studies mainly adopted continuous-field models to represent spatial variables and to investigate the underlying spatial…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-08-30 Di Zhu , Yu Liu

Real-world decision-making, from tax compliance assessment to medical diagnosis, requires aggregating multiple noisy and potentially contradictory evidence sources. Existing approaches either lack explicit uncertainty quantification (neural…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2026-03-19 Aliyu Agboola Alege

Continual learning aims to sequentially learn new tasks without forgetting previous tasks' knowledge (catastrophic forgetting). One factor that can cause forgetting is the interference between the gradients on losses from different tasks.…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2025-12-01 Xueying Bai , Jinghuan Shang , Yifan Sun , Niranjan Balasubramanian

Training robots to operate effectively in environments with uncertain states, such as ambiguous object properties or unpredictable interactions, remains a longstanding challenge in robotics. Imitation learning methods typically rely on…

机器人学 · 计算机科学 2025-10-14 Hyogo Hiruma , Hiroshi Ito , Tetsuya Ogata

Temporal point processes (TPPs) are effective for modeling event occurrences over time, but they struggle with sparse and uncertain events in federated systems, where privacy is a major concern. To address this, we propose \textit{FedPP}, a…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-01-14 Hui Chen , Xuhui Fan , Hengyu Liu , Yaqiong Li , Zhilin Zhao , Feng Zhou , Christopher John Quinn , Longbing Cao