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External validity is often questionable in empirical research, especially in randomized experiments due to the trade-off between internal validity and external validity. To quantify the robustness of external validity, one must first…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-06-20 Tenglong Li

We describe a design-based framework for drawing causal inference in general randomized experiments. Causal effects are defined as linear functionals evaluated at unit-level potential outcome functions. Assumptions about the potential…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-08-15 Christopher Harshaw , Fredrik Sävje , Yitan Wang

When engagement with a randomized trial is driven by factors that affect the outcome or when trial engagement directly affects the outcome independent of treatment, the average treatment effect among trial participants is unlikely to…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-06-27 Issa J. Dahabreh , James M. Robins , Sebastien J-P. A. Haneuse , Miguel A. Hernán

Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) represent a gold standard when developing policy guidelines. However, RCTs are often narrow, and lack data on broader populations of interest. Causal effects in these populations are often estimated using…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-03-07 Zeshan Hussain , Michael Oberst , Ming-Chieh Shih , David Sontag

Causal inference analysis is the estimation of the effects of actions on outcomes. In the context of healthcare data this means estimating the outcome of counter-factual treatments (i.e. including treatments that were not observed) on a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-03-21 Yishai Shimoni , Chen Yanover , Ehud Karavani , Yaara Goldschmnidt

Conventional methods in causal effect inferencetypically rely on specifying a valid set of control variables. When this set is unknown or misspecified, inferences will be erroneous. We propose a method for inferring average causal effects…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-06-14 Ludvig Hult , Dave Zachariah

Causal inference is to estimate the causal effect in a causal relationship when intervention is applied. Precisely, in a causal model with binary interventions, i.e., control and treatment, the causal effect is simply the difference between…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-07-19 Zhenyu Lu , Yurong Cheng , Mingjun Zhong , George Stoian , Ye Yuan , Guoren Wang

Estimating causal effects in a target population with unmeasured confounders is challenging, especially when instrumental variables (IVs) are unavailable. However, IVs from auxiliary populations with similar problems can help infer causal…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-08-06 Wei Li , Jiapeng Liu , Peng Ding , Zhi Geng

Outcome-dependent sampling designs are common in many different scientific fields including epidemiology, ecology, and economics. As with all observational studies, such designs often suffer from unmeasured confounding, which generally…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-10-13 Erin E. Gabriel , Michael C. Sachs , Arvid Sjölander

Causal inference studies whether the presence of a variable influences an observed outcome. As measured by quantities such as the "average treatment effect," this paradigm is employed across numerous biological fields, from vaccine and drug…

Model explanations based on pure observational data cannot compute the effects of features reliably, due to their inability to estimate how each factor alteration could affect the rest. We argue that explanations should be based on the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-09-20 Álvaro Parafita , Jordi Vitrià

In this expository paper, we consider the problem of causal inference and efficient estimation for the counterfactual survivor function. This problem has previously been considered in the literature in several papers, each relying on the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-10-02 Benjamin R. Baer , Ashkan Ertefaie , Robert L. Strawderman

Standard measures of effect, including the risk ratio, the odds ratio, and the risk difference, are associated with a number of well-described shortcomings, and no consensus exists about the conditions under which investigators should…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-10-08 Anders Huitfeldt , Andrew Goldstein , Sonja A. Swanson

One of the most fundamental problems in causal inference is the estimation of a causal effect when variables are confounded. This is difficult in an observational study, because one has no direct evidence that all confounders have been…

机器学习 · 统计学 2014-11-03 Ricardo Silva , Robin Evans

Causal mediation analysis provides techniques for defining and estimating effects that may be endowed with mechanistic interpretations. With many scientific investigations seeking to address mechanistic questions, causal direct and indirect…

Randomized trials are widely considered as the gold standard for evaluating the effects of decision policies. Trial data is, however, drawn from a population which may differ from the intended target population and this raises a problem of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-10-30 Sofia Ek , Dave Zachariah

Causal inference is a critical research topic across many domains, such as statistics, computer science, education, public policy and economics, for decades. Nowadays, estimating causal effect from observational data has become an appealing…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-02-10 Liuyi Yao , Zhixuan Chu , Sheng Li , Yaliang Li , Jing Gao , Aidong Zhang

Causal inference quantifies cause-effect relationships by estimating counterfactual parameters from data. This entails using \emph{identification theory} to establish a link between counterfactual parameters of interest and distributions…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-04-17 Jaron J. R. Lee , Ilya Shpitser

Confounding seriously impairs our ability to learn about causal relations from observational data. Confounding can be defined as a statistical association between two variables due to inputs from a common source (the confounder). For…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-05-17 Anders Ledberg

Causal inference relies on two fundamental assumptions: ignorability and positivity. We study causal inference when the true confounder value can be expressed as a function of the observed data; we call this setting estimation with…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-02-18 Aahlad Puli , Adler J. Perotte , Rajesh Ranganath