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A comprehensive methodology for inference in vector autoregressions (VARs) using sign and other structural restrictions is developed. The reduced-form VAR disturbances are driven by a few common factors and structural identification…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2022-06-15 Dimitris Korobilis

Competing risks models for a repairable system subject to several failure modes are discussed. Under minimal repair, it is assumed that each failure mode has a power law intensity. An orthogonal reparametrization is used to obtain an…

We perform accurate numerical experiments with fully-connected (FC) one-hidden layer neural networks trained with a discretized Langevin dynamics on the MNIST and CIFAR10 datasets. Our goal is to empirically determine the regimes of…

无序系统与神经网络 · 物理学 2024-01-23 P. Baglioni , R. Pacelli , R. Aiudi , F. Di Renzo , A. Vezzani , R. Burioni , P. Rotondo

We study the well-known problem of estimating a sparse $n$-dimensional unknown mean vector $\theta = (\theta_1, ..., \theta_n)$ with entries corrupted by Gaussian white noise. In the Bayesian framework, continuous shrinkage priors which can…

统计理论 · 数学 2018-07-10 Ray Bai , Malay Ghosh

We present a novel technique for amortized posterior estimation using Normalizing Flows trained with likelihood-weighted importance sampling. This approach allows for the efficient inference of theoretical parameters in high-dimensional…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-02-23 Rajneil Baruah

This article describes a full Bayesian treatment for simultaneous fixed-effect selection and parameter estimation in high-dimensional generalized linear mixed models. The approach consists of using a Bayesian adaptive Lasso penalty for…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-08-31 Dao Thanh Tung , Minh-Ngoc Tran , Tran Manh Cuong

Logistic Gaussian process (LGP) priors provide a flexible alternative for modelling unknown densities. The smoothness properties of the density estimates can be controlled through the prior covariance structure of the LGP, but the challenge…

统计计算 · 统计学 2016-11-01 Jaakko Riihimäki , Aki Vehtari

Power priors are used for incorporating historical data in Bayesian analyses by taking the likelihood of the historical data raised to the power $\alpha$ as the prior distribution for the model parameters. The power parameter $\alpha$ is…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-06-27 Samuel Pawel , Frederik Aust , Leonhard Held , Eric-Jan Wagenmakers

A standard introduction to online learning might place Online Gradient Descent at its center and then proceed to develop generalizations and extensions like Online Mirror Descent and second-order methods. Here we explore the alternative…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-08-31 Dirk van der Hoeven , Tim van Erven , Wojciech Kotłowski

We consider the fractional posterior distribution that is obtained by updating a prior distribution via Bayes theorem with a fractional likelihood function, a usual likelihood function raised to a fractional power. First, we analyze the…

统计理论 · 数学 2016-11-08 Anirban Bhattacharya , Debdeep Pati , Yun Yang

This paper introduces the $(\alpha, \Gamma)$-descent, an iterative algorithm which operates on measures and performs $\alpha$-divergence minimisation in a Bayesian framework. This gradient-based procedure extends the commonly-used…

统计理论 · 数学 2021-10-25 Kamélia Daudel , Randal Douc , François Portier

Bayesian design of experiments and sample size calculations usually rely on complex Monte Carlo simulations in practice. Obtaining bounds on Bayesian notions of the false-positive rate and power therefore often lack closed-form or…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-02-06 Riko Kelter , Samuel Pawel

Penalized regression methods, such as $L_1$ regularization, are routinely used in high-dimensional applications, and there is a rich literature on optimality properties under sparsity assumptions. In the Bayesian paradigm, sparsity is…

统计理论 · 数学 2014-01-22 Anirban Bhattacharya , Debdeep Pati , Natesh S. Pillai , David B. Dunson

Modern applications of Bayesian inference involve models that are sufficiently complex that the corresponding posterior distributions are intractable and must be approximated. The most common approximation is based on Markov chain Monte…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-05-15 Yue Yang , Ryan Martin , Howard Bondell

We consider a prior for nonparametric Bayesian estimation which uses finite random series with a random number of terms. The prior is constructed through distributions on the number of basis functions and the associated coefficients. We…

统计理论 · 数学 2015-02-10 Weining Shen , Subhashis Ghosal

Bayesian statistical inference for Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) with parameters lying on a constrained space is of general interest (e.g., in monotonic or convex regression), but often constructing valid prior distributions supported on…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-09-02 Rahul Ghosal , Sujit K. Ghosh

The nonparametric regression model with normal errors has been extensively studied, both from the frequentist and Bayesian viewpoint. A central result in Bayesian nonparametrics is that under assumptions on the prior, the data-generating…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-12-24 Paul Rosa

Many popular Bayesian nonparametric priors can be characterized in terms of exchangeable species sampling sequences. However, in some applications, exchangeability may not be appropriate. We introduce a {novel and probabilistically coherent…

This study proposes a novel hierarchical prior for inferring possibly low-rank matrices measured with noise. We consider three-component matrix factorization, as in singular value decomposition, and its fully Bayesian inference. The…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-10-09 Masahiro Tanaka

The statistical evidence (or marginal likelihood) is a key quantity in Bayesian statistics, allowing one to assess the probability of the data given the model under investigation. This paper focuses on refining the power posterior approach…

统计计算 · 统计学 2013-06-14 Nial Friel , Merrilee Hurn , Jason Wyse