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We develop a risk-averse safety analysis method for stochastic systems on discrete infinite time horizons. Our method quantifies the notion of risk for a control system in terms of the severity of a harmful random outcome in a fraction of…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2022-03-14 Chuanning Wei , Michael Fauss , Margaret P. Chapman

Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) is a prominent risk measure that is being used extensively in various domains. We develop a new formula for the gradient of the CVaR in the form of a conditional expectation. Based on this formula, we…

机器学习 · 统计学 2014-11-25 Aviv Tamar , Yonatan Glassner , Shie Mannor

We consider continuous-time stochastic optimal control problems featuring Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) in the objective. The major difficulty in these problems arises from time-inconsistency, which prevents us from directly using…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2020-05-27 Christopher W. Miller , Insoon Yang

We provide an economic interpretation of the practice consisting in incorporating risk measures as constraints in a classic expected return maximization problem. For what we call the infimum of expectations class of risk measures, we show…

风险管理 · 定量金融 2009-06-19 Laetitia Andrieu , Michel De Lara , Babacar Seck

Spectral risk measures are attractive risk measures as they allow the user to obtain risk measures that reflect their risk-aversion functions. To date there has been very little guidance on the choice of risk-aversion functions underlying…

风险管理 · 定量金融 2011-03-30 kevin dowd , john cotter

In this paper we consider Fourier transform techniques to efficiently compute the Value-at-Risk and the Conditional Value-at-Risk of an arbitrary loss random variable, characterized by having a computable generalized characteristic…

风险管理 · 定量金融 2015-06-01 Alessandro Ramponi

Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) is a widely used risk-sensitive objective for learning under rare but high-impact losses, yet its statistical behavior under heavy-tailed data remains poorly understood. Unlike expectation-based risk, CVaR…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-02-23 Dinesh Karthik Mulumudi , Piyushi Manupriya , Gholamali Aminian , Anant Raj

We study a linear-quadratic, optimal control problem on a discrete, finite time horizon with distributional ambiguity, in which the cost is assessed via Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). We take steps toward deriving a scalable dynamic…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2022-06-28 Margaret P. Chapman , Laurent Lessard

Enforcing safety in the presence of stochastic uncertainty is a challenging problem. Traditionally, researchers have proposed safety in the statistical mean as a safety measure in this case. However, ensuring safety in the statistical mean…

机器人学 · 计算机科学 2021-03-09 Mohamadreza Ahmadi , Xiaobin Xiong , Aaron D. Ames

Distributional reinforcement learning (RL) -- in which agents learn about all the possible long-term consequences of their actions, and not just the expected value -- is of great recent interest. One of the most important affordances of a…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2021-11-15 Chris Gagne , Peter Dayan

In real-world scenarios, risk-averse learning is valuable for mitigating potential adverse outcomes. However, the delayed feedback makes it challenging to assess and manage risk effectively. In this paper, we investigate risk-averse…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-08-06 Siyi Wang , Zifan Wang , Karl Henrik Johansson , Sandra Hirche

In this paper, we develop a theoretical framework for bounding the CVaR of a random variable $X$ using another related random variable $Y$, under assumptions on their cumulative and density functions. Our results yield practical tools for…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-07-31 Yaacov Pariente , Vadim Indelman

Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) is a family of "coherent risk measures" which generalize the traditional mathematical expectation. Widely used in mathematical finance, it is garnering increasing interest in machine learning, e.g., as an…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-11-17 Zakaria Mhammedi , Benjamin Guedj , Robert C. Williamson

We aim to analyze the behaviour of a finite-time stochastic system, whose model is not available, in the context of more rare and harmful outcomes. Standard estimators are not effective in making predictions about such outcomes due to their…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-07-29 Evan Arsenault , Yuheng Wang , Margaret P. Chapman

Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) are two risk measures which are widely used in the practice of risk management. This paper deals with the problem of computing both VaR and CVaR using stochastic approximation (with…

计算金融 · 定量金融 2010-12-06 Olivier Aj Bardou , Noufel Frikha , G. Pagès

In this paper we address the problem of decision making within a Markov decision process (MDP) framework where risk and modeling errors are taken into account. Our approach is to minimize a risk-sensitive conditional-value-at-risk (CVaR)…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2015-06-09 Yinlam Chow , Aviv Tamar , Shie Mannor , Marco Pavone

We study Bayesian persuasion when the receiver evaluates actions by reward-side Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) rather than expected utility. CVaR preferences break the standard action-based direct-recommendation reduction: merging signals…

计算机科学与博弈论 · 计算机科学 2026-05-13 Yujing Chen

We account for time-varying parameters in the conditional expectile-based value at risk (EVaR) model. The EVaR downside risk is more sensitive to the magnitude of portfolio losses compared to the quantile-based value at risk (QVaR). Rather…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2020-09-29 Xiu Xu , Andrija Mihoci , Wolfgang Karl Härdle

Consider a multi-agent network comprised of risk averse social sensors and a controller that jointly seek to estimate an unknown state of nature, given noisy measurements. The network of social sensors perform Bayesian social learning -…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2017-12-22 Sujay Bhatt , Vikram Krishnamurthy

Conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) is a prominent risk measure in financial engineering, energy systems, and supply chain management. In these domains, Markov decision processes (MDPs) with a long-run CVaR criterion effectively mitigate cost…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2026-03-11 Qixin Wang , Hao Cao , Jian-Qiang Hu , Mingjie Hu , Li Xia