相关论文: Bayesian Sample Size Calculations for SMART Studie…

For a Bayesian, real-time forecasting with the posterior predictive distribution can be challenging for a variety of time series models. First, estimating the parameters of a time series model can be difficult with sample-based approaches…

A Bayesian non-parametric framework for studying time-to-event data is proposed, where the prior distribution is allowed to depend on an additional random source, and may update with the sample size. Such scenarios are natural, for…

Background: We aimed to design a Bayesian adaption trial through extensive simulations to determine values for key design parameters, demonstrate error rates, and establish the expected sample size. The complexity of the proposed outcome…

In this paper we construct optimal designs for frequentist model averaging estimation. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the model averaging estimate with fixed weights in the case where the competing models are non-nested and none…

Standard random-effects meta-analysis methods perform poorly when applied to few studies only. Such settings however are commonly encountered in practice. It is unclear, whether or to what extent small-sample-size behaviour can be improved…

Historical data about disease outcomes can be integrated into the analysis of clinical trials in many ways. We build on existing literature that uses prognostic scores from a predictive model to increase the efficiency of treatment effect…

Extending Bayesian optimization to batch evaluation can enable the designer to make the most use of parallel computing technology. However, most of current batch approaches do not scale well with the batch size. That is, their performances…

In conventional randomized controlled trials, adjustment for baseline values of covariates known to be at least moderately associated with the outcome increases the power of the trial. Recent work has shown particular benefit for more…

We present a bayesassurance R package that computes the Bayesian assurance under various settings characterized by different assumptions and objectives. The package offers a constructive set of simulation-based functions suitable for…

In many applications, smooth processes generate data that is recorded under a variety of observation regimes, such as dense, sparse or fragmented observations that are often contaminated with error. The statistical goal of registering and…

Selection bias arises when the probability that an observation enters a dataset depends on variables related to the quantities of interest, leading to systematic distortions in estimation and uncertainty quantification. For example, in…

We propose a novel sparse spectrum approximation of Gaussian process (GP) tailored for Bayesian optimization. Whilst the current sparse spectrum methods provide desired approximations for regression problems, it is observed that this…

The problem of adaptive sampling for estimating probability mass functions (pmf) uniformly well is considered. Performance of the sampling strategy is measured in terms of the worst-case mean squared error. A Bayesian variant of the…

We propose BaySize, a sample size calculator for phase I clinical trials using Bayesian models. BaySize applies the concept of effect size in dose finding, assuming the MTD is defined based on an equivalence interval. Leveraging a decision…

National statistical institutes in many countries are now mandated to produce reliable statistics for important variables such as population, income, unemployment, health outcomes, etc. for small areas, defined by geography and/or…

This paper addresses the challenge of model uncertainty in quantitative finance, where decisions in portfolio allocation, derivative pricing, and risk management rely on estimating stochastic models from limited data. In practice, the…

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have received an increased interest in the last years. In BNNs, a complete posterior distribution of the unknown weight and bias parameters of the network is produced during the training stage. This…

Bayesian and frequentist methods differ in many aspects, but share some basic optimality properties. In practice, there are situations in which one of the methods is more preferred by some criteria. We consider the case of inference about a…

Randomized controlled experiments assess new policy impacts on performance metrics to inform launch decisions. Traditional approaches evaluate metrics independently despite correlations, and mixed results (e.g., positive revenue impact,…

Sparse estimation of the precision matrix under high-dimensional scaling constitutes a canonical problem in statistics and machine learning. Numerous regression and likelihood based approaches, many frequentist and some Bayesian in nature…