相关论文: Forecasting and its Beneficiaries

We study a Bayesian persuasion setting in which a sender wants to persuade a critical mass of receivers by revealing partial information about the state to them. The homogeneous binary-action receivers are located on a communication…

The development of energy systems is not a technocratic process but equally shaped by societal and cultural forces. Key instruments in this process are model-based scenarios describing a future energy system. Applying the concept of…

A prediction market is a useful means of aggregating information about a future event. To function, the market needs a trusted entity who will verify the true outcome in the end. Motivated by the recent introduction of decentralized…

The demands for accurate and representative generative AI systems means there is an increased demand on participatory evaluation structures. While these participatory structures are paramount to to ensure non-dominant values, knowledge and…

We survey a range of models of opinion exchange. From the introduction: "The exchange of opinions between individuals is a fundamental social interaction... Moreover, many models in this field are an excellent playground for mathematicians,…

Scoring systems, as a type of predictive model, have significant advantages in interpretability and transparency and facilitate quick decision-making. As such, scoring systems have been extensively used in a wide variety of industries such…

There is growing acknowledgement within the software engineering community that a theory of software development is needed to integrate the myriad methodologies that are currently popular, some of which are based on opposing perspectives.…

Empirical researchers and decision-makers spanning various domains frequently seek profound insights into the long-term impacts of interventions. While the significance of long-term outcomes is undeniable, an overemphasis on them may…

The predict-then-optimize framework arises in a wide variety of applications where the unknown cost coefficients of an optimization problem are first predicted based on contextual features and then used to solve the problem. In this work,…

In this paper, we discuss a potential agenda for future work in the theory of random sets and belief functions, touching upon a number of focal issues: the development of a fully-fledged theory of statistical reasoning with random sets,…

Probabilistic forecasting in combination with stochastic programming is a key tool for handling the growing uncertainties in future energy systems. Derived from a general stochastic programming formulation for the optimal scheduling and…

A growing trend for information technology is to not just react to changes, but anticipate them as much as possible. This paradigm made modern solutions, such as recommendation systems, a ubiquitous presence in today's digital transactions.…

The extraction of signals from noise is a common problem in all areas of science and engineering. A particularly useful version is that of forecasting: determining a causal filter that estimates a future value of a hidden process from past…

Recent advances in data collection and computational statistics coupled with increases in computer processing power, along with the plunging costs of storage are making technologies to effectively analyze large sets of heterogeneous data…

Opponent modeling consists in modeling the strategy or preferences of an agent thanks to the data it provides. In the context of automated negotiation and with machine learning, it can result in an advantage so overwhelming that it may…

Predicting future outcomes is a prevalent application of machine learning in social impact domains. Examples range from predicting student success in education to predicting disease risk in healthcare. Practitioners recognize that the…

This work examines the role of recommender systems in promoting sustainability, social responsibility, and accountability, with a focus on alignment with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). As recommender systems become…

Predicting another person's upcoming action to build an appropriate response is a regular occurrence in the domain of motor control. In this review we discuss conceptual and experimental approaches aiming at the neural basis of predicting…

Public support and political mobilization are two crucial factors for the adoption of ambitious climate policies in line with the international greenhouse gas reduction targets of the Paris Agreement. Despite their compound importance, they…

Pathways that describe the optimal evolution of energy systems across multiple decades are important in energy system research and policy literature, with net-zero and similar climate policies being common drivers behind them. While there…