相关论文: Forecasting and its Beneficiaries

We study the utilitarian distortion of social choice mechanisms under the recently proposed learning-augmented framework where some (possibly unreliable) predicted information about the preferences of the agents is given as input. In…

Communities of practice in science communication can make important contributions to public engagement with science but are under-researched. In this article, we look at the perspectives of a community of practice in astronomy communication…

Forecasting AI progress is essential to reducing uncertainty in order to appropriately plan for research efforts on AI safety and AI governance. While this is generally considered to be an important topic, little work has been conducted on…

Selective rationalization has become a common mechanism to ensure that predictive models reveal how they use any available features. The selection may be soft or hard, and identifies a subset of input features relevant for prediction. The…

Deploying AI systems in public institutions can have far-reaching consequences for many people, making it a matter of public interest. Providing opportunities for stakeholders to come together, understand these systems, and debate their…

Either saying that the market is structured to promote workforce exploitation in some sections or the people who participate there benefit from the existing structure and exploit, exploitation happens - systematically or opportunistically.…

Efficient estimation under bias sampling, censoring or truncation is a difficult question which has been partially answered and the usual estimators are not always consistent. Several biased designs are considered for models with variables…

Politics is the set of activities related to strategic decision-making in groups. Political scientists study the strategic interactions between states, institutions, politicians, and citizens; they seek to understand the causes and…

Economies are fundamentally complex and becoming more so, but the new discipline of data science-which combines programming, statistics, and domain knowledge-can help cut through that complexity, potentially with productivity benefits to…

Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate partial forecasting competence across social, political, and economic events. Yet, their predictive ability varies sharply with domain structure and prompt framing. We investigate how forecasting…

This paper presents the risks and opportunities of big data and the potential social benefits it can bring. The research is based on an analysis of the societal impacts observed in a set of six case studies across different European…

Predicting future events is an important activity with applications across multiple fields and domains. For example, the capacity to foresee stock market trends, natural disasters, business developments, or political events can facilitate…

Intermediaries, like real estate agents, Consumer Reports, and Zagats, have long helped buyers to identify their most suitable options. Now, the combination of databases and the Internet enables them to serve consumers dramatically more…

The purpose of Carroll Mechanisms is to facilitate autonomous group sensemaking and reasoned decisionmaking by incentivizing participants to be transparent about their reasoning process, and to empower participants who are known to be…

We often rely on our intuition to anticipate the direction of a conversation. Endowing automated systems with similar foresight can enable them to assist human-human interactions. Recent work on developing models with this predictive…

Rationality is frequently associated with making the best possible decisions. It's widely acknowledged that humans, as rational beings, have limitations in their decision-making capabilities. Nevertheless, recent advancements in fields,…

We study the evolution of public cooperation on two interdependent networks that are connected by means of a utility function, which determines to what extent payoffs in one network influence the success of players in the other network. We…

We consider an environment where sellers compete over buyers. All sellers are a-priori identical and strategically signal buyers about the product they sell. In a setting motivated by on-line advertising in display ad exchanges, where firms…

We initiate the study of incentive-compatible forecasting competitions in which multiple forecasters make predictions about one or more events and compete for a single prize. We have two objectives: (1) to incentivize forecasters to report…

As recommender systems are being designed and deployed for an increasing number of socially-consequential applications, it has become important to consider what properties of fairness these systems exhibit. There has been considerable…