相关论文: The Solar Memory From Hours to Decades
The precise physical process that triggers solar flares is not currently understood. Here we attempt to capture the signature of this mechanism in solar image data of various wavelengths and use these signatures to predict flaring activity.…
The level of solar magnetic activity, as exemplified by the number of sunspots and by energetic events in the corona, varies on a wide range of time scales. Most prominent is the 11-year solar cycle, which is significantly modulated on…
Inter-cycle variations in the series of 11-year solar activity cycles have a significant impact on both the space environment and climate. Whether solar cycle variability is dominated by deterministic chaos or stochastic perturbations…
Solar flares are energetic events taking place in the Sun's atmosphere, and their effects can greatly impact the environment of the surrounding planets. In particular, eruptive flares, as opposed to confined flares, launch coronal mass…
The observed powerlaw distributions of solar flare parameters can be interpreted in terms of a nonlinear dissipative system in the state of self-organized criticality (SOC). We present a universal analytical model of a SOC process that is…
The evolution of the solar activity comprises, apart from the well-known 11-year cycle, various temporal scales ranging from months up to the secondary cycles known as mid-term oscillations. Its nature deserves a physical explanation. In…
Using the non-linear mean-field dynamo models we calculate the magnetic cycle parameters, like the dynamo cycle period, the amplitude of the total magnetic energy, and the Poynting flux luminosity from the surface for the solar analogs with…
Solar flares are among the most powerful and dynamic events in the solar system, resulting from the sudden release of magnetic energy stored in the Sun's atmosphere. These energetic bursts of electromagnetic radiation can release up to…
We present a study of the waiting time distributions (WTDs) of solar energetic particle (SEP) events observed with the spacecraft $WIND$ and $GOES$. Both the WTDs of solar electron events (SEEs) and solar proton events (SPEs) display a…
In isolated solar active regions, we find that the waiting times between flares correlate with flare magnitudes as determined by the GOES soft X-ray fluxes. A "build-up and release" scenario (BUR) for magnetic energy storage in the solar…
Avalanche models running in a self-organized critical regime have proven powerful in reproducing the power-law distributions and scale invariance that characterize the statistical properties of solar flares. They are often interpreted as…
The prediction of the evolution of individual solar cycles is a developing field, faced with divergence of forecasts even for a few years in the future. Specifically for solar flares, long-term modeling is practically absent even in rough…
Waiting time distributions of solar flares and {\sl coronal mass ejections (CMEs)} exhibit power law-like distribution functions with slopes in the range of $\alpha_{\tau} \approx 1.4-3.2$, as observed in annual data sets during 4 solar…
Solar flares result from the sudden release of energy deposited by sub-photospheric motions into the magnetic field of the corona. The deposited energy accumulates secularly between events. One may interpret the observed event statistics as…
Prediction of the Sun's magnetic activity is important because of its effect on space environment and climate. However, recent efforts to predict the amplitude of the solar cycle have resulted in diverging forecasts with no consensus.…
Ways to give medium- and short-term predictions of solar flares are proposed according to the statistical analysis of events during solar cycle 23. On one hand, the time distribution of both C and M class flares shows two main periods of…
The sunspot number data during the past 400 years indicates that both the profile and the amplitude of the solar cycle have large variations. Some precursors of the solar cycle were identified aiming to predict the solar cycle. The polar…
The sunspot number (SSN), the total solar irradiance (TSI), a TSI reconstruction, and the solar flare index (SFI), are analyzed for long-range persistence (LRP). Standard Hurst analysis yields $H \approx 0.9$, which suggests strong LRP.…
The Sun shows a wide range of temporal variations, from a few seconds to decades and even centuries, broadly classified into two classes short-term and Long-term. The solar dynamo mechanism is believed to be responsible for these global…
Solar active regions and the processes that occur in them have been extensively studied and analyzed and many types of models and characterizations have been proposed for the occurrence of different eruptive events that take place in the…