相关论文: The Solar Memory From Hours to Decades
It was recently pointed out that the distribution of times between solar flares (the flare waiting-time distribution) follows a power law, for long waiting times. Based on 25 years of soft X-ray flares observed by Geostationary Operational…
In this study we aim for a deeper understanding of the power law slope, $\alpha$, of waiting time distributions. Statistically independent events with linear behavior can be characterized by binomial, Gaussian, exponential, or Poissonian…
We use Renewal Theory for the estimation and interpretation of the flare rate from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) soft X-ray flare catalogue. It is found, that in addition to the flare rate variability with the…
The distributions of solar flare energies and waiting times have not been described simultaneously by a single physical model, yet. In this research, we investigate whether recent avalanche models can describe the distributions for both the…
We aim to better characterize the conditions of the solar corona, especially with respect to the occurrence of confined and eruptive flares. In this work, we model the coronal evolution around 231 large flares observed during solar cycle…
The distribution of interval times between recurrent discrete events, such as Solar and stellar flares, reflects their underlying dynamics. Log-normal functions provide good fits to the interval time distributions of many recurrent…
Solar flare ribbons are believed to map the footpoints of newly reconnected magnetic flux tubes, therefore shedding light on the reconnecting current sheet, which is rarely observed by direct imaging or spectroscopy. Here we study the…
We explore the tail of various waiting time datasets of processes that follow a nonstationary Poisson distribution with a sinusoidal driver. Analytically, we find that the distribution of large waiting times of such processes can be…
Solar flares form and release energy across a large number of magnetic loops. The global parameters of flares, such as the total energy released, duration, physical size, etc., are routinely measured, and the hydrodynamics of a coronal loop…
We study the time evolution of Solar Flares activity by looking at the statistics of quiescent times $\tau_{L}$ between successive bursts. The analysis of 20 years of data reveals a power law distribution with exponent $\alpha \simeq 2.4$…
The original concept of self-organized criticality (Bak et al.~1987), applied to solar flare statistics (Lu and Hamilton 1991), assumed a slow-driven and stationary flaring rate, which warrants time scale separation (between flare durations…
The spot evolution on the Sun and solar-type stars is important for understanding the nature of consequential flaring activity. This study statistically investigates the variance of flare occurrence rate through the time evolution of spots…
A time-dependent model for the energy of a flaring solar active region is presented based on a stochastic jump-transition model (Wheatland and Glukhov 1998; Wheatland 2008; Wheatland 2009). The magnetic free energy of the model active…
We study the waiting time distributions of solar flares observed in hard X-rays with ISEE-3/ICE, HXRBS/SMM, WATCH/GRANAT, BATSE/CGRO, and RHESSI. Although discordant results and interpretations have been published earlier, based on…
Large scale solar eruptions significantly impact space weather and damages space-based human infrastructures. It is necessary to predict large scale solar eruptions, which will enable us to protect our vulnerable infrastructures of modern…
The waiting time statistics of solar flares provides clues for the underlying physical mechanisms. However, flares occurring on the far-side have been missing in the statistics. In the 2024 May and June, the Solar Orbiter (SolO) spacecraft…
Using a reconstruction of sunspot numbers stretching over multiple millennia, we analyze the statistics of the occurrence of grand minima and maxima and set new observational constraints on long-term solar and stellar dynamo models. We…
A statistical analysis of a large data set of H-alpha flares comprising almost 100000 single events that occurred during the period January 1975 to December 1999 is presented. We analyzed the flares evolution steps, i.e. duration, rise…
We analyze the waiting time distribution of time distances $\tau$ between two nearest-neighbor flares. This analysis is based on the joint use of two distinct techniques. The first is the direct evaluation of the distribution function…
Solar flares are powered by energy stored in the coronal magnetic field, a portion of which is released when the field reconfigures into a lower energy state. Investigation of sunspot magnetic field topology during flare activity is useful…