相关论文: Predicting Drought and Subsidence Risks in France

Daily rainfall extremes and annual totals have increased in large parts of the global land area over the last decades. These observations are consistent with theoretical considerations of a warming climate. However, until recently these…

Natural and anthropogenic disasters frequently affect both the supply and demand side of an economy. A striking recent example is the Covid-19 pandemic which has created severe disruptions to economic output in most countries. These direct…

Modern society's reliance on power systems is at risk from the escalating effects of wind-related climate change. Yet, failure to identify the intricate relationship between wind-related climate risks and power systems could lead to serious…

This paper is a follow-up to our earlier study, Natural Disasters in Canada (2017). We analyze the Canadian Disaster Database (CDD) to examine the frequency and severity of various natural disasters over the past 120 years and to identify…

We provide a survey of how techniques developed for the modelling of extremes naturally matter in insurance, and how they need to and can be adapted for the insurance applications. Topics covered include truncation, tempering, censoring and…

Earth System Models (ESMs) are essential tools for understanding the impact of human actions on Earth's climate. One key application of these models is studying extreme weather events, such as heat waves or dry spells, which have…

Accurate prediction of non-dispatchable renewable energy sources is essential for grid stability and price prediction. Regional power supply forecasts are usually indirect through a bottom-up approach of plant-level forecasts, incorporate…

I examine global recessions as a cascade phenomenon. In other words, how recessions arising in one or more countries might percolate across a network of connected economies. A heterogeneous agent based model is set up in which the agents…

Variable renewable energy droughts, so called Dunkelflaute events, emerge as a challenge for climate-neutral energy systems based on variable renewables. Here we characterize European drought events for on- and offshore wind power, solar…

In several regions across the globe, snow has a significant impact on hydrology. The amounts of water that infiltrate the ground and flow as runoff are driven by the melting of snow. Therefore, it is crucial to study the magnitude and…

We model the unidentified aerial phenomena observed in France during the last 60 years as a spatial point pattern. We use some public information such as population density, rate of moisture or presence of airports to model the intensity of…

This article examines the economic effects of an increase in the duration of home loans on households, focusing on the French real estate market. It highlights trends in the property market, existing loan systems in other countries (such as…

The purpose of this paper is to estimate a representative and detailed map of the harvest value in wine using structured and unstructured open data sources. With climate change and new environmental and ecological policies, wine producers…

Some analyses suggest that drought in Syria during 2007-10 may have contributed to the 2011 onset of its civil war and that anthropogenic climate change had a detectable impact on the severity of that drought. Yet these qualitative…

Wind energy plays a critical role in mitigating climate change and meeting growing energy demands. However, the long-term impacts of anthropogenic warming on wind resources, particularly their seasonal variations and potential compounding…

This paper proposes a flexible and analytically tractable class of frequency and severity models for predicting insurance claims. The proposed model is able to capture nonlinear relationships in explanatory variables by characterizing the…

In recent decades, the weather around the world has become more irregular and extreme, often causing large-scale extended power outages. Resilience -- the capability of withstanding, adapting to, and recovering from a large-scale disruption…

We may anticipate that climate change will bring changes to the intensity and variability of near surface winds, either through local effects or by altering the large-scale flow. The impact of climate change on European wind resources has…

In the interest of conservation, the importance of having a large habitat available for a species is widely known. Here, we introduce a lattice-based model for a population and look at the importance of fluctuations as well as that of the…

Thuiller et al. analyzed the consequences of anticipated climate change on plant, bird, and mammal phylogenetic diversity (PD) across Europe. They concluded that species loss will not be clade specific across the Tree of Life, and that…