相关论文: Likelihood-Free Frequentist Inference: Bridging Cl…

We propose a general method for constructing hypothesis tests and confidence sets that have finite sample guarantees without regularity conditions. We refer to such procedures as "universal." The method is very simple and is based on a…

Indirect Inference (I-I) is a popular technique for estimating complex parametric models whose likelihood function is intractable, however, the statistical efficiency of I-I estimation is questionable. While the efficient method of moments,…

Increasingly complex applications involve large datasets in combination with non-linear and high dimensional mathematical models. In this context, statistical inference is a challenging issue that calls for pragmatic approaches that take…

Bayesian inference requires specification of a single, precise prior distribution, whereas frequentist inference only accommodates a vacuous prior. Since virtually every real-world application falls somewhere in between these two extremes,…

Statistical models of natural stimuli provide an important tool for researchers in the fields of machine learning and computational neuroscience. A canonical way to quantitatively assess and compare the performance of statistical models is…

The rapid proliferation of high-quality synthetic data -- generated by advanced AI models or collected as auxiliary data from related tasks -- presents both opportunities and challenges for statistical inference. This paper introduces a…

In machine learning, likelihood-free inference refers to the task of performing an analysis driven by data instead of an analytical expression. We discuss the application of Neural Spline Flows, a neural density estimation algorithm, to the…

Many recent works in simulation-based inference (SBI) rely on deep generative models to approximate complex, high-dimensional posterior distributions. However, evaluating whether or not these approximations can be trusted remains a…

While fiducial inference was widely considered a big blunder by R.A. Fisher, the goal he initially set --`inferring the uncertainty of model parameters on the basis of observations' -- has been continually pursued by many statisticians. To…

The use of standard statistical methods, such as maximum likelihood, is often justified based on their asymptotic properties. For suitably regular models, this theory is standard but, when the model is non-regular, e.g., the support depends…

Generative models and those with computationally intractable likelihoods are widely used to describe complex systems in the natural sciences, social sciences, and engineering. Fitting these models to data requires likelihood-free inference…

For many stochastic models of interest in systems biology, such as those describing biochemical reaction networks, exact quantification of parameter uncertainty through statistical inference is intractable. Likelihood-free computational…

We investigate the problem of statistical inference for logistic regression with high-dimensional covariates in settings where dependence among individuals is induced by an underlying Markov random field. Going beyond the pairwise…

Inferential models (IMs) offer prior-free, Bayesian-like posterior degrees of belief designed for statistical inference, which feature a frequentist-like calibration property that ensures reliability of said inferences. The catch is that…

Our predictions for particle physics processes are realized in a chain of complex simulators. They allow us to generate high-fidelity simulated data, but they are not well-suited for inference on the theory parameters with observed data. We…

Bayesian, frequentist and fiducial (BFF) inferences are much more congruous than they have been perceived historically in the scientific community (cf., Reid and Cox 2015; Kass 2011; Efron 1998). Most practitioners are probably more…

There is a growing need for the ability to analyse interval-valued data. However, existing descriptive frameworks to achieve this ignore the process by which interval-valued data are typically constructed; namely by the aggregation of…

Fast and automated inference of binary-lens, single-source (2L1S) microlensing events with sampling-based Bayesian algorithms (e.g., Markov Chain Monte Carlo; MCMC) is challenged on two fronts: high computational cost of likelihood…

Selection bias arises when the probability that an observation enters a dataset depends on variables related to the quantities of interest, leading to systematic distortions in estimation and uncertainty quantification. For example, in…

Throughout the life sciences we routinely seek to interpret measurements and observations using parameterised mechanistic mathematical models. A fundamental and often overlooked choice in this approach involves relating the solution of a…