相关论文: Likelihood-Free Frequentist Inference: Bridging Cl…

Bayesian inference allows expressing the uncertainty of posterior belief under a probabilistic model given prior information and the likelihood of the evidence. Predominantly, the likelihood function is only implicitly established by a…

Generative AI has achieved remarkable empirical success, but from the perspective of statistics it often remains opaque: its predictions may be accurate, yet the underlying mechanism is difficult to interpret, analyze, and trust. This book…

The development of statistical methods for valid and efficient probabilistic inference without prior distributions has a long history. Fisher's fiducial inference is perhaps the most famous of these attempts. We argue that, despite its…

An inferential model (IM) is a model describing the construction of provably reliable, data-driven uncertainty quantification and inference about relevant unknowns. IMs and Fisher's fiducial argument have similar objectives, but a…

Mechanistic dynamic models of biochemical networks such as Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) contain unknown parameters like the reaction rate constants and the initial concentrations of the compounds. The large number of parameters as…

Uncertainty quantification for estimation through stochastic optimization solutions in an online setting has gained popularity recently. This paper introduces a novel inference method focused on constructing confidence intervals with…

The graphical lasso is a widely used algorithm for fitting undirected Gaussian graphical models. However, for inference on functionals of edge values in the learned graph, standard tools lack formal statistical guarantees, such as control…

A maximum likelihood methodology for the parameters of models with an intractable likelihood is introduced. We produce a likelihood-free version of the stochastic approximation expectation-maximization (SAEM) algorithm to maximize the…

The likelihood function plays a pivotal role in statistical inference; it is adaptable to a wide range of models and the resultant estimators are known to have good properties. However, these results hinge on correct specification of the…

Ensuring factuality is essential for the safe use of Large Language Models (LLMs) in high-stakes domains such as medicine and law. Conformal inference provides distribution-free guarantees, but existing approaches are either overly…

Many statistical models can be simulated forwards but have intractable likelihoods. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods are used to infer properties of these models from data. Traditionally these methods approximate the posterior…

This paper considers an empirical likelihood inference for parameters defined by general estimating equations, when data are missing at random. The efficiency of existing estimators depends critically on correctly specifying the conditional…

Unbinned likelihood fits aim at maximizing the information one can extract from experimental data, yet their application in realistic statistical analyses is often hindered by the computational cost of profiling systematic uncertainties.…

Factor models are widely applied to the analysis of multivariate data across disparate fields of research. However, modern scientific data are often incomplete, and estimating a factor model from partially observed data can be very…

Forensic examination of evidence like firearms and toolmarks, traditionally involves a visual and therefore subjective assessment of similarity of two questioned items. Statistical models are used to overcome this subjectivity and allow…

Applied statistical problems often come with pre-specified groupings to predictors. It is natural to test for the presence of simultaneous group-wide signal for groups in isolation, or for multiple groups together. Classical tests for the…

Constructing prediction sets with coverage guarantees for unobserved outcomes is a core problem in modern statistics. Methods for predictive inference have been developed for a wide range of settings, but usually only consider test data…

Statistical prediction plays an important role in many decision processes such as university budgeting (depending on the number of students who will enroll), capital budgeting (depending on the remaining lifetime of a fleet of systems), the…

Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) is a common name for an emerging family of approaches that infer the model parameters when the likelihood is intractable. Existing SBI methods either approximate the likelihood, such as Approximate Bayesian…

We extend the model-free Data-Driven computing paradigm to solids and structures that are stochastic due to intrinsic randomness in the material behavior. The behavior of such materials is characterized by a likelihood measure instead of a…