相关论文: On assessing excess mortality in Germany during th…

Based on the comprehensive national death registry of Mexico spanning from 1998 to 2022 a point and interval estimation method for the excess mortality in Mexico during the years 2020-2022 is proposed based on illness-induced deaths only,…

A second wave of SARS-CoV-2 is unfolding in dozens of countries. However, this second wave manifests itself strongly in new reported cases, but less in death counts compared to the first wave. Over the past three months in Germany, the…

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to ravage the world, it is of critical significance to provide a timely risk prediction of the COVID-19 in multi-level. To implement it and evaluate the public health policies, we develop a framework with…

The COVID-19 pandemic has placed forecasting models at the forefront of health policy making. Predictions of mortality and hospitalization help governments meet planning and resource allocation challenges. In this paper, we consider the…

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a public health emergency of international concern affecting 201 countries and territories around the globe. As of April 4, 2020, it has caused a pandemic outbreak with more than 11,16,643…

The effective reproduction number is a key figure to monitor the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. In this study we consider a retrospective modelling approach for estimating the effective reproduction number based on death counts during the…

The last two centuries have seen a significant increase in life expectancy. Although past trends suggest that mortality will continue to decline in the future, uncertainty and instability about the development is greatly increased due to…

During 2020, the infection rate of COVID-19 has been investigated by many scholars from different research fields. In this context, reliable and interpretable forecasts of disease incidents are a vital tool for policymakers to manage…

Background. The excess mortality rate in Aotearoa New Zealand during the Covid-19 pandemic is frequently estimated to be among the lowest in the world. However, to facilitate international comparisons, many of the methods that have been…

Background: A major question in Covid-19 research is whether democracies handled the Covid-19 pandemic crisis better or worse than authoritarian countries. However, it is important to consider the issues of democracy versus…

Disadvantaged groups around the world have suffered and endured higher mortality during the current COVID-19 pandemic. This contrast disparity suggests that socioeconomic and health-related factors may drive inequality in disease outcome.…

In this work, we propose a deep learning approach to forecasting state-level COVID-19 trends of weekly cumulative death in the United States (US) and incident cases in Germany. This approach includes a transformer model, an ensemble method,…

We investigate the problem of estimating the distribution of the individual reproduction number governing the COVID-19 pandemic. Under the assumption that this random variable follows a Negative Binomial distribution, we focus on…

Several analytical models have been used in this work to describe the evolution of death cases arising from coronavirus (COVID-19). The Death or `D' model is a simplified version of the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model, which…

The case fatality ratio (CFR) for COVID-19 is difficult to estimate. One difficulty is due to ignoring or overestimating time delay between reporting and death. We claim that all of these cause large errors and artificial time dependence of…

Understanding Covid-19 lethality and its variation from country to country is essential for supporting governments in the choice of appropriate strategies. Adopting correct indicators to monitor the lethality of the infection in the course…

Recently, we have shown that the age-specific prevalence of a disease can be related to the transition rates in the illness-death model via a partial differential equation (PDE). In case of a chronic disease, we show that the PDE can be…

Large-scale testing is considered key to assess the state of the current COVID-19 pandemic. Yet, the link between the reported case numbers and the true state of the pandemic remains elusive. We develop mathematical models based on…

Excess mortality is defined as an increase in the number of deaths above what is expected based on historical trends, hereafter called baseline. In a previous paper, we introduced a statistical method that allows an unbiased and robust…

Based on the SIRD-model a new model including time-delay is proposed for a description of the outbreak of the novel coronavirus Sars-CoV-2 pandemic. All data were analysed by representing all quantities as a function of the susceptible…