相关论文: A consistent nonparametric test of the effect of d…

Joint models are used in ageing studies to investigate the association between longitudinal markers and a time-to-event, and have been extended to multiple markers and/or competing risks. The competing risk of death must be considered in…

Background: Dementia leads to a high burden of disability and the number of dementia patients worldwide doubled between 1990 and 2016. Nevertheless, some studies indicated a decrease in dementia risk which may be due to a bias caused by…

This paper estimates the stochastic process of how dementia incidence evolves over time. We proceed in two steps: first, we estimate a time trend for dementia using a multi-state Cox model. The multi-state model addresses problems of both…

Dementia currently affects about 50 million people worldwide, and this number is rising. Since there is still no cure, the primary focus remains on preventing modifiable risk factors such as cardiovascular factors. It is now recognized that…

We jointly model longitudinal values of a psychometric test and diagnosis of dementia. The model is based on a continuous-time latent process representing cognitive ability. The link between the latent process and the observations is…

We use the illness-death model (IDM) for chronic conditions to derive a new analytical relation between the transition rates between the states of the IDM. The transition rates are the incidence rate (i) and the mortality rates of people…

Interval-censored multi-state data arise in many studies of chronic diseases, where the health status of a subject can be characterized by a finite number of disease states and the transition between any two states is only known to occur…

Joint models initially dedicated to a single longitudinal marker and a single time-to-event need to be extended to account for the rich longitudinal data of cohort studies. Multiple causes of clinical progression are indeed usually…

Semi-Markov models are widely used for survival analysis and reliability analysis. In general, there are two competing parameterizations and each entails its own interpretation and inference properties. On the one hand, a semi-Markov…

In this paper, we investigate a nonparametric approach to provide a recursive estimator of the transition density of a non-stationary piecewise-deterministic Markov process, from only one observation of the path within a long time. In this…

In this study, we consider sequences drawn from time-homogeneous Markov chains and introduce a novel approach for estimating first hitting-time distributions to specified terminal states. Our method- ology is based on the…

We propose to describe the dynamics of phase transitions in terms of a non-stationary Generalized Langevin Equation for the order parameter. By construction, this equation is non-local in time, i.e.~it involves memory effects whose…

Transition probability estimation plays a critical role in multi-state modeling, especially in clinical research. This paper investigates the application of semi-Markov and Markov renewal frameworks to the EBMT dataset, focusing on six…

Markovian memory embedded in a binary system is shaping its evolution on the basis of its current state and introduces either clustering or dispersion of binary states. The consequence is directly observed in the lengthening or shortening…

We propose a constructive approach to building temporal point processes that incorporate dependence on their history. The dependence is modeled through the conditional density of the duration, i.e., the interval between successive event…

We study memory dependent binary-state dynamics, focusing on the noisy-voter model. This is a non-Markovian process if we consider the set of binary states of the population as the description variables, or Markovian if we incorporate…

The initial transient phase of an emerging epidemic is of critical importance for data-driven model building, model-based prediction of the epidemic trend, and articulation of control/prevention strategies. In principle, quantitative models…

Progressive diseases worsen over time and are characterised by monotonic change in features that track disease progression. Here we connect ideas from two formerly separate methodologies -- event-based and hidden Markov modelling -- to…

In population-based cohorts, disease diagnoses are typically censored by intervals as made during scheduled follow-up visits. The exact disease onset time is thus unknown, and in the presence of semi-competing risk of death, subjects may…

This paper descibes a new method for deriving incidence rates of a chronic disease from prevalence data. It is based on a new ordinary differential equation, which relates the change in the age-specific prevalence to the agespecific…