相关论文: A Bayesian change point model for spatio-temporal …

Instabilities and long term shifts in seasons, whether induced by natural drivers or human activities, pose great disruptive threats to ecological, agricultural, and social systems. Here, we propose, measure, and explore two fundamental…

Recently, D. Zhou et al. 2015 studied empirically the land surface temperature of 32 Chinese cities and reported an exponentially decaying residual effect of the urban heat island (UHI) around the cities. Here we show analytically that such…

Numerical climate models are used to project future climate change due to both anthropogenic and natural causes. Differences between projections from different climate models are a major source of uncertainty about future climate. Emergent…

Climate models have become an important tool in the study of climate and climate change, and ensemble experiments consisting of multiple climate-model runs are used in studying and quantifying the uncertainty in climate-model output.…

Detecting early warning signals in climatic time series is essential for anticipating critical transitions and tipping points. Common statistical indicators include increased variance and lag-one autocorrelation prior to bifurcation points.…

Heat, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems play a critical role in maintaining a comfortable thermal environment and cost approximately 40% of primary energy usage in the building sector. For smart energy management in buildings,…

This article introduces a dynamic spatiotemporal stochastic volatility (SV) model with explicit terms for the spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal spillover effects. Moreover, the model includes time-invariant site-specific constant…

We propose a novel Bayesian methodology for analyzing nonstationary time series that exhibit oscillatory behaviour. We approximate the time series using a piecewise oscillatory model with unknown periodicities, where our goal is to estimate…

Climate models are biased with respect to real-world observations. They usually need to be adjusted before being used in impact studies. The suite of statistical methods that enable such adjustments is called bias correction (BC). However,…

We introduce a novel Bayesian method that can detect multiple structural breaks in the mean and variance of a length $T$ time-series. Our method quantifies uncertainty by returning $\alpha$-level credible sets around the estimated locations…

We study sequential change-point detection for spatio-temporal point processes, where actionable detection requires not only identifying when a distributional change occurs but also localizing where it manifests in space. While classical…

Identification of local structure in intensive data -- such as time series, images, and higher dimensional processes -- is an important problem in astronomy. Since the data are typically generated by an inhomogeneous Poisson process, an…

To assess the durability of structures, heat and moisture transport need to be analyzed. To provide a reliable estimation of heat and moisture distribution in a certain structure, one needs to include all available information about the…

Quantifying the speed of linguistic change is challenging due to the fact that the historical evolution of languages is sparsely documented. Consequently, traditional methods rely on phylogenetic reconstruction. In this paper, we propose a…

Environmental processes resolved at a sufficiently small scale in space and time will inevitably display non-stationary behavior. Such processes are both challenging to model and computationally expensive when the data size is large.…

In climate change study, the infrared spectral signatures of climate change have recently been conceptually adopted, and widely applied to identifying and attributing atmospheric composition change. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model…

Controlling building electric loads could alleviate the increasing grid strain caused by the adoption of renewables and electrification. However, current approaches that automatically setback thermostats on the hottest day compromise their…

The problem of change-point estimation is considered under a general framework where the data are generated by unknown stationary ergodic process distributions. In this context, the consistent estimation of the number of change-points is…

Quantifying long-term historical climate is fundamental to understanding recent climate change. Most instrumentally recorded climate data are only available for the past 200 years, so proxy observations from natural archives are often…

Rising demand for space cooling has been placing enormous strain on various technological, environmental, and societal dimensions, resulting in issues related to energy consumption, environmental sustainability, health and well-being,…