相关论文: Modelling sub-daily precipitation extremes with th…
In this chapter, we show how to efficiently model high-dimensional extreme peaks-over-threshold events over space in complex non-stationary settings, using extended latent Gaussian Models (LGMs), and how to exploit the fitted model in…
We propose a comprehensive Bayesian hierarchical model for monthly maxima of instantaneous flow in river catchments. The Gumbel distribution is used as the probabilistic model for the observations, which are assumed to come from several…
In extreme values theory, for a sufficiently large block size, the maxima distribution is approximated by the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. The GEV distribution is a family of continuous probability distributions, which has…
High-resolution climatic data are essential to many applications in environmental research. Here we develop a new semi-mechanistic downscaling approach for daily precipitation that incorporates high resolution (30 arc sec) satellite-derived…
Intense precipitation events are commonly known to be associated with an increased risk of flooding. As a result of the societal and infrastructural risks linked with flooding, extremes of precipitation require careful modelling. Extreme…
Modeling extreme precipitation and temperature is vital for understanding the impacts of climate change, as hazards like intense rainfall and record-breaking temperatures can result in severe consequences, including floods, droughts, and…
A new stochastic model for daily precipitation occurrence processes observed at multiple locations is developed. The modeling concept is to use the indicator function and the elliptical shape of multivariate Gaussian distribution to…
Dependent generalized extreme value (dGEV) models have attracted much attention due to the dependency structure that often appears in real datasets. To construct a dGEV model, a natural approach is to assume that some parameters in the…
The monthly precipitation data from 29 meteorological stations for the period 1946--2012 from Serbia were used. To describe the behaviour of precipitation data at a specific location, it is necessary to identify the distribution that best…
Naveau et al. (2016) have recently developed a class of methods, based on extreme-value theory (EVT), for capturing low, moderate, and heavy rainfall simultaneously, without the need to choose a threshold typical to EVT methods. We analyse…
Precisely estimating out-of-sample upper quantiles is very important in risk assessment and in engineering practice for structural design to prevent a greater disaster. For this purpose, the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution has…
With extreme weather events becoming more common, the risk posed by surface water flooding is ever increasing. In this work we propose a model, and associated Bayesian inference scheme, for generating probabilistic (high-resolution…
The paper presents improved mathematical models and methods for statistical regularities in the behavior of some important characteristics of precipitation: duration of a wet period, maximum daily and total precipitation volumes within a…
A successful model for high-dimensional spatial extremes should, in principle, be able to describe both weakening extremal dependence at increasing levels and changes in the type of extremal dependence class as a function of the distance…
Modeling the risk of extreme weather events in a changing climate is essential for developing effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. Although the available low-resolution climate models capture different scenarios, accurate risk…
The problem of estimating return levels of river discharge, relevant in flood frequency analysis, is tackled by relying on the extreme value theory. The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution is assumed to model annual maxima values…
In weather forecasting, nonhomogeneous regression is used to statistically postprocess forecast ensembles in order to obtain calibrated predictive distributions. For wind speed forecasts, the regression model is given by a truncated normal…
The integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) for Bayesian inference is an efficient approach to estimate the posterior marginal distributions of the parameters and latent effects of Bayesian hierarchical models that can be expressed…
Statistical downscaling of global climate models (GCMs) allows researchers to study local climate change effects decades into the future. A wide range of statistical models have been applied to downscaling GCMs but recent advances in…
In most risk assessment studies, it is important to accurately capture the entire distribution of the multivariate random vector of interest from low to high values. For example, in climate sciences, low precipitation events may lead to…