相关论文: Value-at-Risk Optimization with Gaussian Processes

The increasing value of data held in enterprises makes it an attractive target to attackers. The increasing likelihood and impact of a cyber attack have highlighted the importance of effective cyber risk estimation. We propose two methods…

Accurate computation of robust estimates for extremal quantiles of empirical distributions is an essential task for a wide range of applicative fields, including economic policymaking and the financial industry. Such estimates are…

Considering non-stationary environments in online optimization enables decision-maker to effectively adapt to changes and improve its performance over time. In such cases, it is favorable to adopt a strategy that minimizes the negative…

Motivated by the prominence of Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) as a measure for tail risk in settings affected by uncertainty, we develop a new formula for approximating CVaR based optimization objectives and their gradients from limited…

Gaussian processes have become a promising tool for various safety-critical settings, since the posterior variance can be used to directly estimate the model error and quantify risk. However, state-of-the-art techniques for safety-critical…

This paper proposes a risk-aware control approach to enforce safety for discrete-time nonlinear systems subject to stochastic uncertainties. We derive some useful results on the worst-case Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) and define a…

Risk sensitive decision making finds important applications in current day use cases. Existing risk measures consider a single or finite collection of random variables, which do not account for the asymptotic behaviour of underlying…

In economics, insurance and finance, value at risk (VaR) is a widely used measure of the risk of loss on a specific portfolio of financial assets. For a given portfolio, time horizon, and probability $\alpha$, the $100\alpha\%$ VaR is…

In this paper, we study the stochastic combinatorial multi-armed bandit problem under semi-bandit feedback. While much work has been done on algorithms that optimize the expected reward for linear as well as some general reward functions,…

PAC generalization bounds on the risk, when expressed in terms of the expected loss, are often insufficient to capture imbalances between subgroups in the data. To overcome this limitation, we introduce a new family of risk measures, called…

In this paper, we study the behavior of the Upper Confidence Bound-Variance (UCB-V) algorithm for the Multi-Armed Bandit (MAB) problems, a variant of the canonical Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) algorithm that incorporates variance estimates…

A highly relevant problem of modern finance is the design of Value-at-Risk (VaR) optimal portfolios. Due to contemporary financial regulations, banks and other financial institutions are tied to use the risk measure to control their credit,…

We study issues of robustness in the context of Quantitative Risk Management and Optimization. We develop a general methodology for determining whether a given risk measurement related optimization problem is robust, which we call…

Optimization problems with uncertain black-box constraints, modeled by warped Gaussian processes, have recently been considered in the Bayesian optimization setting. This work introduces a new class of constraints in which the same…

We consider an investor, whose portfolio consists of a single risky asset and a risk free asset, who wants to maximize his expected utility of the portfolio subject to managing the Value at Risk (VaR) assuming a heavy tailed distribution of…

We aim to optimize a black-box function $f:\mathcal{X} \mapsto \mathbb{R}$ under the assumption that $f$ is H\"older smooth and has bounded norm in the RKHS associated with a given kernel $K$. This problem is known to have an agnostic…

This paper consider considers the problem of locating a two dimensional target from range-measurements containing outliers. Assuming that the number of outlier is known, we formulate the problem of minimizing inlier losses while ignoring…

Risk management is very important for individual investors or companies. There are many ways to measure the risk of investment. Prices of risky assets vary rapidly and randomly due to the complexity of finance market. Random interval is a…

This paper addresses allocation methodologies for a risk measure inherited from ruin theory. Specifically, we consider a dynamic value-at-risk (VaR) measure defined as the smallest initial capital needed to ensure that the ultimate ruin…

We present a polynomial-time online algorithm for maximizing the conditional value at risk (CVaR) of a monotone stochastic submodular function. Given $T$ i.i.d. samples from an underlying distribution arriving online, our algorithm produces…