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We study the problem of a policymaker who aims at taming the spread of an epidemic while minimizing its associated social costs. The main feature of our model lies in the fact that the disease's transmission rate is a diffusive stochastic…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2020-11-04 Salvatore Federico , Giorgio Ferrari

We study how a fraction of a population should be vaccinated to most efficiently top epidemics. We argue that only local information (about the neighborhood of specific vertices) is usable in practice, and hence we consider only local…

种群与进化 · 定量生物学 2007-05-23 Petter Holme

Recent years have seen increasing efforts to forecast infectious disease burdens, with a primary goal being to help public health workers make informed policy decisions. However, there has only been limited discussion of how predominant…

应用统计 · 统计学 2024-03-06 Aaron Gerding , Nicholas G. Reich , Benjamin Rogers , Evan L. Ray

We present a study of the worldwide spread of a pandemic influenza and its possible containment at a global level taking into account all available information on air travel. We studied a metapopulation stochastic epidemic model on a global…

其他定量生物学 · 定量生物学 2007-05-23 Vittoria Colizza , Alain Barrat , Marc Barthelemy , Alain-Jacques Valleron , Alessandro Vespignani

The recent coronavirus outbreak has made governments face an inconvenient tradeoff choice, i.e. the choice between saving lives and saving the economy, forcing them to make immensely consequential decisions among alternative courses of…

综合经济学 · 经济学 2022-09-07 Ali Zeytoon-Nejad , Tanzid Hasnain

Combating an epidemic entails finding a plan that describes when and how to apply different interventions, such as mask-wearing mandates, vaccinations, school or workplace closures. An optimal plan will curb an epidemic with minimal loss of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-06-08 Anh Mai , Nikunj Gupta , Azza Abouzied , Dennis Shasha

The following measures against unemployment are proposed: In the short term, to promote greater income for the poorest sectors. It is shown that this can be paid with the resulting increased production, without losing income to the other…

经济学 · 定量金融 2017-08-23 Thomas Pedro Eggarter

The potential waning of the vaccination immunity to COVID-19 could pose threats to public health, as it is tenable that the timing of such waning would synchronize with the near-complete restoration of normalcy. Should also testing be…

A priority system has traditionally been the protocol of choice for the allocation of scarce life-saving resources during public health emergencies. Covid-19 revealed the limitations of this allocation rule. Many argue that priority systems…

理论经济学 · 经济学 2023-07-04 Parag A. Pathak , Tayfun Sönmez , M. Utku Ünver , M. Bumin Yenmez

Because a fast vaccination rollout against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is critical to restore daily life and avoid virus mutations, it is tempting to have a relaxed vaccination-administration management system. However, a robust…

定量方法 · 定量生物学 2022-03-17 Jorge Medina , Roberto Rojas-Cessa , Vatcharapan Umpaichitra

Most governments employ a set of quasi-standard measures to fight COVID-19 including wearing masks, social distancing, virus testing, contact tracing, and vaccination. However, combining these measures into an efficient holistic pandemic…

理论经济学 · 经济学 2022-02-10 Balázs Pejó , Gergely Biczók

In this study, we explore the dynamic interplay between the timing of vaccination campaigns and the trajectory of disease spread in a population. Through comprehensive data analysis and modeling, we have uncovered a counter-intuitive…

物理与社会 · 物理学 2024-12-06 Piergiorgio Castioni , Sergio Gòmez , Clara Granell , Alex Arenas

Epidemics occur in all shapes and forms: infections propagating in our sparse sexual networks, rumours and diseases spreading through our much denser social interactions, or viruses circulating on the Internet. With the advent of large…

物理与社会 · 物理学 2013-09-02 Laurent Hébert-Dufresne , Antoine Allard , Jean-Gabriel Young , Louis J. Dubé

The current COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdowns have highlighted the close and delicate relationship between a country's public health and economic health. Macroeconomic models that use preexisting epidemic models to calculate the…

物理与社会 · 物理学 2020-07-01 Erhan Bayraktar , Asaf Cohen , April Nellis

In the context of the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, several reports and studies have attempted to model and predict the spread of the disease. There is also intense debate about policies for limiting the damage, both to health and to the…

物理与社会 · 物理学 2020-05-04 Harshad Khadilkar , Tanuja Ganu , Deva P Seetharam

Waning immunity and reinfection are critical features of many infectious diseases, but epidemiological models often fail to capture the intricate interaction between an individual's history of immunity and their current infection status;…

种群与进化 · 定量生物学 2026-03-25 Raimund M. Kovacevic , Nikolaos I. Stilianakis , Vladimir M. Veliov

In the context of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, mathematical modelling has played a fundamental role for making forecasts, simulating scenarios and evaluating the impact of preventive political, social and pharmaceutical measures. Optimal control…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2022-11-01 Giovanni Ziarelli , Luca Dede' , Nicola Parolini , Marco Verani , Alfio Quarteroni

Vaccination is important to minimize the risk and spread of various diseases. In recent years, vaccination has been a key step in countering the COVID-19 pandemic. However, many people are skeptical about the use of vaccines for various…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2023-12-19 Aniket Deroy , Subhankar Maity

Spreading processes represent a very efficient tool to investigate the structural properties of networks and the relative importance of their constituents, and have been widely used to this aim in static networks. Here we consider simple…

物理与社会 · 物理学 2013-09-11 Michele Starnini , Anna Machens , Ciro Cattuto , Alain Barrat , Romualdo Pastor Satorras

The World Health Organization's Expanded Programme on Immunization (WHO-EPI) was developed to ensure that all children have access to common childhood vaccinations. Unfortunately, because of inefficient distribution networks and cost…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2020-05-11 Yuwen Yang , Jayant Rajgopal
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