相关论文: Probabilistic forecast reconciliation under the Ga…

This paper presents a formal framework and proposes algorithms to extend forecast reconciliation to discrete-valued data to extend forecast reconciliation to discrete-valued data, including low counts. A novel method is introduced based on…

Linearly constrained multiple time series may be encountered in many practical contexts, such as the National Accounts (e.g., GDP disaggregated by Income, Expenditure and Output), and multilevel frameworks where the variables are organized…

We encounter time series data in many domains such as finance, physics, business, and weather. One of the main tasks of time series analysis, one that helps to take informed decisions under uncertainty, is forecasting. Time series are often…

Cross-temporal forecast reconciliation aims to ensure consistency across forecasts made at different temporal and cross-sectional levels. We explore the relationships between sequential, iterative, and optimal combination approaches, and…

We assess the advantage of combining univariate and multivariate portfolio risk forecasts with the aid of forecast reconciliation techniques. In our analyzes, we assume knowledge of portfolio weights, a standard for portfolio risk…

In recent works by Yang et al. (2017a,b), and Yagli et al. (2019), geographical, temporal, and sequential deterministic reconciliation of hierarchical photovoltaic (PV) power generation have been considered for a simulated PV dataset in…

This paper forges a strong connection between two seemingly unrelated forecasting problems: incentive-compatible forecast elicitation and forecast aggregation. Proper scoring rules are the well-known solution to the former problem. To each…

We introduce a dynamic approach to probabilistic forecast reconciliation at scale. Our model differs from the existing literature in this area in several important ways. Firstly we explicitly allow the weights allocated to the base…

Probabilistic forecasting models for joint distributions of targets in irregular time series with missing values are a heavily under-researched area in machine learning, with, to the best of our knowledge, only two Models have been…

We present a novel approach for reconciling hierarchical forecasts, based on Bayes rule. We define a prior distribution for the bottom time series of the hierarchy, based on the bottom base forecasts. Then we update their distribution via…

In this paper, we propose a machine learning approach for forecasting hierarchical time series. When dealing with hierarchical time series, apart from generating accurate forecasts, one needs to select a suitable method for producing…

The output of predictive models is routinely recalibrated by reconciling low-level predictions with known derived quantities defined at higher levels of aggregation. For example, models predicting turnout probabilities at the individual…

Maximum likelihood estimation is an important statistical technique for estimating missing data, for example in climate and environmental applications, which are usually large and feature data points that are irregularly spaced. In…

Statistical inverse learning aims at recovering an unknown function $f$ from randomly scattered and possibly noisy point evaluations of another function $g$, connected to $f$ via an ill-posed mathematical model. In this paper we blend…

Calibration ensures that predicted uncertainties align with observed uncertainties. While there is an extensive literature on recalibration methods for univariate probabilistic forecasts, work on calibration for multivariate forecasts is…

Probabilistic forecasting relies on past observations to provide a probability distribution for a future outcome, which is often evaluated against the realization using a scoring rule. Here, we perform probabilistic forecasting with…

Orthogonal least square (OLS) is an important sparse signal recovery algorithm for compressive sensing, which enjoys superior probability of success over other well-known recovery algorithms under conditions of correlated measurement…

Modeling and inferring spatial relationships and predicting missing values of environmental data are some of the main tasks of geospatial statisticians. These routine tasks are accomplished using multivariate geospatial models and the…

Logistic models are studied as a tool to convert output from numerical weather forecasting systems (deterministic and ensemble) into probability forecasts for binary events. A logistic model obtains by putting the logarithmic odds ratio…

Although many time series are realizations from discrete processes, it is often that a continuous Gaussian model is implemented for modeling and forecasting the data, resulting in incoherent forecasts. Forecasts using a Poisson-Lindley…