相关论文: Uncertainty spill-overs: when policy and financial…

Assessing the stability of economic systems is a fundamental research focus in economics, that has become increasingly interdisciplinary in the currently troubled economic situation. In particular, much attention has been devoted to the…

Risk assessment under different possible scenarios is a source of uncertainty that may lead to concerning financial losses. We address this issue, first, by adapting a robust framework to the class of spectral risk measures. Second, we…

Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) represents the uncertainty realized by the investors during economic policy alterations. EPU is a critical indicator in economic studies to predict future investments, the unemployment rate, and recessions.…

Empirical researchers often estimate spillover effects by fitting linear or non-linear regression models to sampled network data. We show that common sampling schemes bias these estimates, potentially upwards, and derive biased-corrected…

Systemic risk arises as a multi-layer network phenomenon. Layers represent direct financial exposures of various types, including interbank liabilities, derivative- or foreign exchange exposures. Another network layer of systemic risk…

We study the ever more integrated and ever more unbalanced trade relationships between European countries. To better capture the complexity of economic networks, we propose two global measures that assess the trade integration and the trade…

The instability of the financial system as experienced in recent years and in previous periods is often linked to credit defaults, i.e., to the failure of obligors to make promised payments. Given the large number of credit contracts, this…

The international financial system is currently not yet prepared to face a foreseeable crisis mainly motivated by the dichotomy between the real economy and the virtual economy. Skepticism is widespread even when it comes to investments in…

Strategies aimed at reducing the negative effects of long-term uncertainty and risk are common in biology, game theory, and finance, even if they entail a cost in terms of mean benefit. Here, we focus on the single mutant's invasion of a…

The increasing integration of world economies, which organize in complex multilayer networks of interactions, is one of the critical factors for the global propagation of economic crises. We adopt the network science approach to quantify…

Uncertainty can be classified as either aleatoric (intrinsic randomness) or epistemic (imperfect knowledge of parameters). The majority of frameworks assessing infectious disease risk consider only epistemic uncertainty. We only ever…

In recent years there has been a closer interrelationship between several scientific areas trying to obtain a more realistic and rich explanation of the natural and social phenomena. Among these it should be emphasized the increasing…

Based on an empirical analysis of the network structure of the Austrian inter-bank market, we study the flow of funds through the banking network following exogenous shocks to the system. These shocks are implemented by stochastic changes…

The financial and economic crisis recently experienced by many European countries has increased demand for timely, coherent and consistent distributional information for the household sector. In the Euro area, most of the NCBs collect such…

I characterize optimal government policy in a sticky-price economy with different types of consumers and endogenous financial constraints in the banking and entrepreneurial sectors. The competitive equilibrium allocation is constrained…

How, and to what extent, does an interconnected financial system endogenously amplify external shocks? This paper attempts to reconcile some apparently different views emerged after the 2008 crisis regarding the nature and the relevance of…

We estimate the short-run effects of weather-related disasters on local economic activity and cross-border spillovers that operate through economic linkages between U.S. states. To this end, we use emergency declarations triggered by…

Accuracy of economic theories and efficiency of economic policy strictly depend on the choice of the economic variables and processes mostly liable for description of economic reality. That states the general problem of assessment of any…

European Monetary Union continues to be characterised by significant macroeconomic imbalances. Germany has shown increasing current account surpluses at the expense of the other member states (especially the European periphery). Since the…

This paper studies systemic-risk connectedness in the European insurance sector at three levels of granularity: across major segments of financial markets, across insurance subsectors, and across individual insurance companies. Using a…