相关论文: Predicting Sunspot Numbers for Solar Cycles 25 and…
Solar magnetic activity is expressed via variations of sunspots and active regions varying on different timescales. The most accepted is an 11-year period supposedly induced by the electromagnetic solar dynamo mechanism. There are also some…
We report observations of a steady 20 year decline of solar photospheric fields at latitudes $\geq$45${^{o}}$ starting from $\sim$1995. This prolonged and continuing decline, combined with the fact that Cycle 24 is already past its peak,…
The solar magnetic activity cycle causes changes in the Sun on timescales that are relevant to human lifetimes. The minimum in solar activity that preceded the current solar cycle (cycle 24) was deeper and quieter than any other recent…
Relative variations in the number of sunspots and sunspot groups in activity cycles have been analyzed based on data from the Kislovodsk Mountain Astronomical Station and international indices. The following regularities have been…
Spotless days (SLDs) as well as CMEs in the decay phase of the solar cycle are believed to be a good predictor of the forthcoming cycle. A sequential increase in SLDs is observed since cycle 21, and cycle 24 has the highest number of SLDs…
One prominent feature of solar cycle is its irregular variation in its cycle strength, making it challenging to predict the amplitude of the next cycle. Studies show that fluctuations and nonlinearity in generating poloidal field throughout…
We consider the statistical relationship between the growth rate of activity in the early phase of a solar cycle with its subsequent amplitude on the basis of four datasets of global activity indices (Wolf sunspot number, group sunspot…
Solar activity has significant impacts on human activities and health. One most commonly used measure of solar activity is the sunspot number. This paper compares three important non-deep learning models, four popular deep learning models,…
The sunspot number (SSN), the total solar irradiance (TSI), a TSI reconstruction, and the solar flare index (SFI), are analyzed for long-range persistence (LRP). Standard Hurst analysis yields $H \approx 0.9$, which suggests strong LRP.…
We summarize observations of around a thousand solar energetic particle (SEP) events since 1967 that include ~25 MeV protons, made by various near-Earth spacecraft (IMPs 4, 5, 7, 8, ISEE 3, SOHO), that encompass Solar Cycle 20 to the…
In this paper, starting from the updated time series of global temperature anomalies, Ta, we show how the solar component affects the observed behavior using, as an indicator of solar activity, the Solar Sunspot Number SSN. The results that…
The paper presents the results of the analysis of the geometric characteristics of sunspots for the period of 19-24 cycles of activity. The shape of sunspots was studied on the basis of the method of normalization of images of sunspots to…
The sunspot number data during the past 400 years indicates that both the profile and the amplitude of the solar cycle have large variations. Some precursors of the solar cycle were identified aiming to predict the solar cycle. The polar…
The aim of this work is to create a long (410 years) series of average annual total sunspot areas AR - physically-based index of sunspot activity. We used telescopic observations of the AR index in 1832-1868 and 1875-2020, as well as the…
The slopes of the linear relations between sunspot and white light (WL) facular areas at the onset of sunspot Cycles 12-21 correlate well with the amplitudes of those cycles between 1878-1980 (Brown and Evans, 1980). We use continuum images…
The Schwabe (~11 yr) value for the annual sunspot number is sometimes uncritically applied to other measures of solar activity, direct and indirect, including the 10.7 cm radio flux, the inflow of galactic cosmic rays, solar flare…
Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events and their major subclass, Solar Proton Events (SPEs), can have unfavorable consequences on numerous aspects of life and technology, making them one of the most harmful effects of solar activity.…
Traditionally, solar physicists become anxious around solar minimum, as they await the high-latitude sunspot groups of the new cycle. Now, we are in an extended sunspot minimum with conditions not seen in recent memory, and interest in the…
We present the assessment of a diffusion-dominated mean field axisymmetric dynamo model in reproducing historical solar activity and forecast for solar cycle 25. Previous studies point to the Sun's polar magnetic field as an important proxy…
The scope of this study is to model the solar-wind environment for the Parker Solar Probe's unprecedented distances down to 9.86 Rs in its mission phase during 2018-2025. The study is performed within the CGAUSS project which is the German…