相关论文: A safety factor approach to designing urban infras…

Facing climate change, the already limited availability of drinking water will decrease in the future rendering drinking water an increasingly scarce resource. Considerable amounts of it are lost through leakages in water transportation and…

Natural climate variability, captured through multiple initial condition ensembles, may be comparable to the variability caused by knowledge gaps in future emissions trajectories and in the physical science basis, especially at…

Designing and maintaining resilient transportation systems rely on identifying potential vulnerabilities and inefficiencies before crises occur. However, given the complexity of transportation networks, as well as the diversity of ways in…

In this paper we discuss and address the challenges of predicting extreme atmospheric events like intense rainfall, hail, and strong winds. These events can cause significant damage and have become more frequent due to climate change.…

Climate change increases the frequency of extreme rainfall, placing a significant strain on urban infrastructures, especially Combined Sewer Systems (CSS). Overflows from overburdened CSS release untreated wastewater into surface waters,…

Predicting future probable values of model parameters, is an essential pre-requisite for assessing model decision reliability in an uncertain environment. Scenario Analysis is a methodology for modelling uncertainty in water resources…

Projections of storm surge return levels are a basic requirement for effective management of coastal risks. A common approach to estimate hazards posed by extreme sea levels is to use a statistical model, which may use a time series of a…

In many coastal communities, the risks driven by storm surges are motivating substantial investments in flood risk management. The design of adaptive risk management strategies, however, hinges on the ability to detect future changes in…

The challenges in operational flood forecasting lie in producing reliable forecasts given constrained computational resources and within processing times that are compatible with near-real-time forecasting. Flood hydrodynamic models exploit…

In hydrology, modeling streamflow remains a challenging task due to the limited availability of basin characteristics information such as soil geology and geomorphology. These characteristics may be noisy due to measurement errors or may be…

Water distribution networks are hydraulic infrastructures that aim to meet water demands at their various nodes. Water flows through pipes in the network create nonlinear dynamics on networks. A desirable feature of water distribution…

Understanding the relationship between urban form and structure and spatial variation of property flood risk has been a longstanding challenge in urban planning and city flood risk management. Yet limited data-driven insights exist…

Complex, interdependent systems are necessary to the delivery of goods and services critical to societal function. Here we demonstrate how interdependent systems respond to disruptions. Specifically, we change the spatial arrangement of a…

This study proposes a real-time control framework for cascaded hydropower systems that incorporates decision-dependent uncertainty (DDU) to capture the coupling of streamflow uncertainties across the reservoirs. The framework jointly models…

This paper describes a novel approach to planning which takes advantage of decision theory to greatly improve robustness in an uncertain environment. We present an algorithm which computes conditional plans of maximum expected utility. This…

In an era of accelerating change, urban water infrastructure systems increasingly operate outside of their design conditions, putting new pressure on systems' institutional designs to weather emerging challenges. Water management…

Climate change poses complex challenges, with extreme weather events becoming increasingly frequent and difficult to model. Examples include the dynamics of Combined Sewer Systems (CSS). Overburdened CSS during heavy rainfall will overflow…

Resiliency has garnered attention in the management of critical infrastructure as a metric of system performance, but there are significant roadblocks to its implementation in a realistic decision-making framework. Contrasted to risk and…

Assessing climate risk and its potential impacts on our cities and economies is of fundamental importance. Extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, floods, and storm surges can lead to catastrophic damages. We propose a flexible approach…

This paper develops a continuous-time filtering framework for estimating a hazard rate subject to an unobservable change-point. This framework naturally arises in both financial and insurance applications, where the default intensity of a…